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Informist, Friday, Feb. 20, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Crude oil prices, which rose to an over six-month high earlier in the day, are expected to continue pricing in a large risk-premium because of heightened uncertainty over a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, according to analysts at ING Economics. A short and targeted campaign by the US with limited retaliation from Iran, similar to what was seen in June last year, is starting to look like the best-case scenario and would likely only lead to a short-term spike in oil prices, they said.

 

However, a prolonged action from the US and less measured retaliation from Iran would be more concerning for oil markets, increasingly posing a risk to Iranian and broader Persian Gulf energy infrastructure. "We're either going to get a deal, or it's going to be unfortunate for them," were the words of US President Donald Trump as he put pressure on Iran to come to a nuclear deal. The escalation we have seen in recent days with the build-up of US military assets in the region makes it increasingly difficult to find a path to de-escalation, the analysts said.

 

"However, Trump has given Iran 10-15 days to agree to a deal. Failure to do so would likely lead to US military action against Iran. The key question is then how prolonged any action would be and what the ultimate aim of the US is," they added.

 

At 1318 IST, the most-active May contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was up 0.2% at $71.41 per barrel, after hitting an over six-month high of $71.86 per barrel earlier Friday. Similarly, the most-active April contract of West Texas Intermediate crude on NYMEX was 0.3% higher at $66.60 per barrel. It had also risen to an over six-month high of $67.03 per barrel earlier in the day.

 

The latest inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration would have only provided further support to the oil market, the analysts at ING Economics said. US crude oil inventories, excluding those in strategic petroleum reserves, fell 9 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels in the week ended Friday, while analysts polled by Dow Jones had estimated a rise of 1.1 million barrels.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.97

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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