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Informist, Friday, Feb. 20, 2026

 

MUMBAI – After a series of upward revisions, the International Grains Council has cut its monthly estimate for global grains output in 2025-26 by 1 million tonnes to 2.46 billion tonnes. However, the revised estimate shows a 6% rise on year.

 

"The reduction primarily reflects a revised barley estimate, with minor, near-offsetting changes for other crops," it said in its February report Wednesday.

 

Global consumption of grains is seen marginally down from the previous estimate at 2.42 billion tonnes, although 2.8% higher from the previous year's level, it said.

 

The stocks of grains at the end of 2025-26 is now estimated at 631 million tonnes, down three million tonnes from the earlier estimate but 7.7% up from the previous year's level.

 

"Although forecasts remain tentative at this time, the initial global wheat supply and demand outlook appears slightly tighter in 2026/27, with expectations for a reduced harvest and further consumption gains," it said.

 

The global wheat production and consumption estimates have been maintained at 842 million tonnes and 823 million tonnes respectively. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks has been cut by 1 million tonnes from the previous month to 282 million tonnes.

 

The IGC has kept unchanged its global maize output estimate at 1.31 billion tonnes, up from 1.24 billion tonnes in 2024-25. The consumption has been revised up by 1 million tonnes to 1.30 billion tonnes. The carryover stock estimate has been maintained at 305 million tonnes.

 

Global rice production forecast for the year has remained unchanged at 543 million tonnes. On the other hand, the estimate for global rice consumption has been lowered by 1 million tonnes to 537 million tonnes. The carryover stock estimate has been raised to 193 million tonnes from 191 million tonnes estimated last month.

 

The forecast for world soybean production has been raised to 428 million tonnes from 427 million tonnes estimated last month. Global soybean consumption in 2025–26 is expected at 431 million tonnes, down from 432 million tonnes estimated last month. The carryover stock estimate has been raised to 79 million tonnes from 77 million tonnes estimated earlier.  End

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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