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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert is in the "El Nino WATCH" status, suggesting that an El Nino event is likely to form in the second half of its forecast period, the centre said in its outlook for March to August. There is an "enhanced probability" of below-normal rainfall in India during Jun-Aug, the centre said.

 

Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to prevail during Mar-May, with a 60.3% chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions during the early forecast period, the centre said. The neutral phase is expected to transition into an El Nino event, with the probability of the latter increasing to 90.6% during Jun-Aug, it said. 

 

Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator throughout the forecast period, which indicates the development of El Nino. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value is expected to be 0.13 degrees Celsius in March, before rapidly increasing to 1.49 degrees Celsius in August, the centre said. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

 

Sea surface temperature anomaly is produced by subtracting the long-term mean sea surface temperature from a daily sea surface temperature value. A positive anomaly means that the daily value is warmer than the long-term average for that day; a negative anomaly means it is cooler than the average. A positive sea surface temperature anomaly usually indicates the formation of El Nino.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

With the probability of an El Nino event, the centre sees an enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall in India during Jun-Aug. In India, the onset of southwest monsoon is typically in June and withdrawal by September or October. The southwest monsoon delivers around 70–75% of the country's annual rainfall. The centre also sees an enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures in India during Jun-Aug.

 

During Mar-May, the centre sees a "tendency" of above-normal temperatures over most parts of India. There is also an enhanced probability for above-normal rainfall over most parts of India during the forecast period. 

 

According to the India Meteorological Department, La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures being below normal over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Indian bureau said there's a 75% chance of La Nina conditions transitioning into neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in Feb-Mar.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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