Precious Metals
Commerzbank sees gold near $5,000/ounce in near term on US rate uncertainty
This story was originally published at 17:32 IST on 17 February 2026
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NEW DELHI – Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around the $5,000 per troy ounce mark in the near term, as uncertainty over US interest rates and easing geopolitical tensions limit further upside, according to Commerzbank.
At the start of this week, gold briefly climbed above the $5,000 per troy ounce threshold, but prices have since retreated towards $4,900 per ounce, indicating difficulty in sustaining significant gains, it said.
The German lender said the metal's struggle to extend its rally is partly linked to the uncertain US interest rate outlook. "Although expectations of US rate cuts — as reflected in Fed Funds Futures — have increased in recent weeks, stronger-than-expected US labour market data released last Wednesday pointed to greater resilience in the economy than previously assumed." This, Commerzbank noted, could reduce the urgency for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, tempering support for non-yielding assets such as gold.
On the geopolitical front, the bank said tensions have eased somewhat in recent weeks, curbing safe-haven demand. It pointed to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference, which was interpreted as more conciliatory compared with remarks made last year by US Vice President J.D. Vance.
In addition, negotiations are reportedly underway aimed at finding a peaceful resolution to both the conflict involving Iran and the war in Ukraine, developments that have helped calm markets. "Taken together, this suggests that the gold price is likely to fluctuate around the $5,000 mark for the time being," Commerzbank said.
At 1708 IST, the most-active April gold contract on the COMEX was down 2% at $4,946.3 per ounce. End
US$1 = INR 90.67
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Pallavi Singhal
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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