Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation seen Feb-Apr, says US climate centre
This story was originally published at 09:22 IST on 17 February 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026
MUMBAI – A transition from La Nina to El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions is expected in Feb-Apr, with chances of a neutral event rising to 60% in February, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report last week. Chances of an El Nino event in late summer and beyond have risen to 50–60%, the centre said.
The La Nina event continued in January, with below-average sea surface temperatures observed in the east-central Pacific Ocean, the centre said. In the first week of February, the equatorial subsurface temperature index increased significantly, reflecting the strengthening and expansion of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to sub-seasonal variability, but still reflect aspects of La Nina.
With the warming of sea surface temperatures, La Nina is likely to transition into the neutral phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation during the Northern Hemisphere summer, the centre said. In the Northern Hemisphere, summer runs from June to August. In late summer and beyond, there is a 50–60% chance of El Nino forming. However, the centre noted that forecasts given by international climate models during this time of the year are more uncertain due to lower accuracy.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Avishek Dutta
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
