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Informist, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The La Nina phase in the Equatorial Pacific region has a 75% chance of shifting to El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions by March, private weather agency Skymet said in a release. A slowly developing El Nino is more concerning than a fully developed one as there is a 60% chance that such a situation could lead to below-normal monsoonal rains in several regions, including India, in 2026, it said.

 

Neutral conditions are expected to persist at least until late spring in the Northern Hemisphere, the agency said. Beyond spring, the probability of El Nino conditions becomes higher than that of El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral, although the odds remain in the 48–51% range. 

 

The Southern Oscillation Index, which measures differences in atmospheric pressure, has turned strongly positive again. In December 2025, it had briefly dropped to zero, suggesting La Nina might weaken early. But it has now strengthened once again.

 

The Madden–Julian Oscillation began moving in mid-January over the Western Pacific region and quickly moved eastward. It is now over the Indian Ocean and is expected to stay in Phases 1–3 during this month. At the same time, La Nina conditions continue to persist in the Pacific region and are slightly stronger than in early February, Skymet said. The interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and La Nina may help shift conditions toward El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral earlier than expected, the weather agency said. 

 

However, atmospheric conditions still match La Nina, but weather models are uncertain about where the Madden–Julian Oscillation will move next between Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean. This uncertainty may persist until the fourth week of February, with better clarity expected around mid-March, the agency said.  End

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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