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Informist, Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – Forecasts of a rise in temperatures across most of India in February have raised concerns about wheat production and yields, the country's largest rabi crop, analysts and market participants said. While some believe higher temperatures in the coming weeks could dent expectations of a record wheat production this year, others expect the grain's quality to be adversely affected.

 

According to the India Meteorological Department, most parts of the country are likely to experience above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures throughout February, except in some regions of Southern Peninsular India, where normal minimum temperatures are expected.

 

Currently, temperatures in a few parts of north India, such as Rajasthan, are already above normal for the period. Persistent dry weather, clear skies, and light wind conditions over the past few weeks have raised day temperatures by 4–6 degrees Celsius above normal across several locations, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said.

 

"Wheat is facing heat stress. Day temperatures are rising above normal, and the risk is larger in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar," G. Chandrashekhar, a commodity expert and policy commentator, said.

 

"The weather forecast is a bit worrying. If temperatures rise, yield will be partially impacted," said Ajay Goyal, chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society and the managing director of Shivaji Roller Flour Mills. While there are indications that wheat output could rise 0.5–1% on year, which would mean a record output, warmer weather might reduce it by 2-3%, he said.

 

According to the agriculture ministry, rabi crop sowing has drawn to a close as of Monday, with wheat acreage at 33.4 million hectares, up nearly 1.9% on year. The rise in acreage is attributed to farmers who had previously shifted from wheat to crops such as pulses and spices for greater profitability, shifting back to growing the staple grain as other crop markets lost attractiveness, traders said. With this increase in acreage, the market expects record wheat production this year. Wheat production in 2024-25 (Jul-Jun) was at a record 117.94 million tonnes. The government will announce the estimates of rabi wheat production for the current season in its second advance estimates for 2025-26, which is usually released in March.

 

However, hopes of a record-breaking production could be dashed as the prospect of warmer weather – and even heatwaves – grows. 

 

"The ongoing weather raised a red flag. If there is a heatwave, it will lower output and yield," Chandrashekhar said. "The government's target for wheat production this year was 119 million tonnes. But what if it falls to, say, 110 million tonnes? Then prices will rise," he said.

 

If spot market prices rise, the government's procurement of the grain could face challenges, as farmers are likely to sell crops to market players due to more attractive prices, Chandrashekhar said.

 

The government on Friday allowed the export of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat after a gap of nearly four years. The government has opened wheat exports amid expectations of higher wheat production in 2025-26 (Jul-Jun), availability of ample wheat stocks, and easing prices

 

Some experts point to the risk of quality deterioration due to rising temperatures, though they maintain that wheat output is likely to be higher than last year's. However, they still believe quality issues could impact the government's procurement.

 

"Going ahead, if temperatures rise in northern states, then the size of the grain will be impacted. It will be smaller than expected, which is not good," said Rahul Chauhan, president, IGrain. "I don't expect production to go down too much, but the quality will definitely be impacted due to higher temperatures."

 

Currently, the wheat crop is in the early milking stage across major states, while in Gujarat and Karnataka, it has reached maturity and is entering the harvesting stage. The milk or milking stage of the crop occurs 100–105 days after sowing, when the grain kernels fill with a white, milk-like fluid, which determines grain size, weight, and overall yield. Key management of the crop during this stage includes ensuring adequate moisture to prevent shrivelling.

 

"If heat rises now, the size of the grain will not meet standards for the government's purchase," Chauhan said, adding, "This will cause a problem with procurement, that's the main worry."

 

According to studies, a high temperature of 35/25 degrees Celsius (day/night) during grain filling inhibits leaf photosynthesis by up to 50% in wheat, impacting yield. Each degree increase in temperature during grain filling reduces wheat yield by 6% globally and 3–17% in South Asia, including India and Pakistan.

 

Currently, key wheat-producing states have daytime temperatures of 27–28 degrees Celsius and nighttime temperatures of 15–17 degrees Celsius, Goyal said, quoting sources. Forecasts indicate further warming over the next 15 days, which could limit yield potential versus last year. Night temperatures remain the most critical factor influencing grain filling and final yields, Goyal said.

 

If warming persists, production may be similar to last year, supported by higher acreage in Gujarat and Rajasthan and smaller increases in other states, Goyal said. However, it is too early to give definitive estimates of wheat production this season, experts said.

 

Some experts are banking on the use of higher-quality seeds this season, which could be heat-stress-resistant. "There are reports that in a lot of places a heat-resistant seed variety has been used, which could reduce the impact of a rise in temperature," Chauhan said.

 

"Many farmers have used seed varieties that are heat-resistant, and in some places wheat sowing occurred 10–15 days early, which could push the crop out of the danger zone," Goyal said.

 

Chandrashekhar believes that if higher temperatures damage the wheat crop, the prospects for the grains sector as a whole look bleaker in the medium term due to the possibility of an El Nino in mid-2026. "There is a danger of El Nino setting in during the monsoon, which will hurt the production of rice in the kharif season. If wheat production is hurt now, and then rice production is affected, panic will set in," he said.

 

Several international climate models are showing early signs of an El Nino developing in 2026 due to warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Skymet said. The latest forecast data shows the possibility of El Nino in the second half of 2026, which is likely to intensify in the middle of the southwest monsoon in India and peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter, the weather agency said. This is likely to affect the quantum of rainfall India receives during the southwest monsoon, it said.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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