Global Forecast
StoneX sees India's sugar production for 2025-26 season at 32.3 mln tn
This story was originally published at 16:18 IST on 13 February 2026
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MUMBAI – India's sugar production is likely to reach 32.3 million tonnes in the marketing year 2025-26, according to analysts at international financial services firm StoneX. "In India, harvesting is continuing as expected, driven by an increase in the crop in Maharashtra," according to the analysts.
StoneX has lowered the forecast for global sugar surplus in the marketing year 2025-26 by 800,000 tonnes to 2.9 million tonnes, mainly due to a reduction of more than 1 million tonnes in the expected sugar production in Brazil. "Rainfall in Central-South Brazil through March will be critical for sugarcane supplies. Below-average rainfall could reduce production. Updated crop forecasts in Thailand, China and India could also contribute to improved estimates for the current season," StoneX said.
Sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil is estimated at 40 million tonnes, which is 1.5% less than in the previous season, according to the financial services franchise. In the northeastern region of the country, higher diversion of sucrose for ethanol production led to fall in share of sugar production from sugarcane, which was estimated at 3 milion tonnes, 18.5% less than in the previous season.
Thailand's sugar production is expected to be 10.5 million tonnes, while China's sugar output is forecast at 11.5 million tonnes. In the European Union and the UK, total sugar production is estimated to reach 16.8 million tonnes. "Global performance in the MY 2025/26 season was mixed. Thailand and China faced significant delays, while European production exceeded expectations, especially in the European Union and Ukraine," analysts said.
Global sugar stocks are expected to rise by 4% to 76.7 million tonnes, pushing the sugar stock-to-consumption ratio to 39.6%, above the five-year average of 39%, it said. End
Reported by Taniva Singha Roy
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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