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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Demand for silver jewellery is projected to fall for the second consecutive year, declining over 9% in 2026 to 178 million ounces, its lowest level since 2020. Record high prices are expected to curtail consumption across most key markets, led by India. "China will be the main exception, with demand anticipated to edge higher, supported by product innovation and the growing popularity of gold-plated silver jewellery," the Silver Institute said in a report.

 

Globally, silver demand is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2026, as health gains in retail investment will offset most of the losses across other key demand segments such as jewellery, silverware and industrial demand, according to the report.

 

Industrial fabrication of silver is forecast to fall 2% in 2026 to a four-year low of around 650 million ounces, according to the report. This is because the weakness will be underpinned by developments in the photovoltaic sector. While global solar installations are expected to continue rising, ongoing thrifting and outright substitution away from silver will result in falling silver photovoltaic demand.

 

However, several silver applications continue to benefit from favourable structural growth trends. In particular, the expansion of data centres, artificial intelligence-related technologies, and the automotive sector are expected to support silver consumption across a range of industrial end-uses, which will partially offset the decline in PV-related demand, according to the report.

 

Demand for silverware is expected to contract more sharply, about 17% in 2026, the report said. Most losses are forecast to occur in India, where silverware demand is highly price-sensitive due to its discretionary and gift-driven nature, it said.

 

On the other hand, physical investment is expected to rise 20% to a three-year high of 227 million ounces, according to the report. "After three consecutive years of decline, Western physical investment is expected to recover in 2026, as silver's exceptional price performance and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty rekindle investor interest," it said. Investment demand in India is also likely to build on last year's substantial gains amid positive investor sentiment.

 

SILVER SUPPLY

The Silver Institute has forecast total global silver supply to increase 1.5% in 2026, reaching a decade high of 1.05 billion ounces. In 2026, silver mine production is expected to increase 1% to 820 million ounces, driven by stronger output from existing operations and recently commissioned projects.

 

"In China, we expect higher output from China Gold International's Jiama polymetallic mine as the plant expansion continues. Gains in Canada are expected from freshly commissioned projects and existing primary gold and silver operations, most notably Hecla's Keno Hill and New Gold's New Afton (in the process of being acquired by Coeur Mining)," it said. 

 

Meanwhile, in Morocco, a rise in production will be supported by Aya Gold and Silver's Zgounder mine as the ramp-up phase is completed. In Peru, forecast lower production from operations such as Nexa Resources' Cerro Lindo and Buenaventura's Tambomayo will outweigh expected increases at other operations, the report said.

 

By-product silver from primary gold mines is forecast to grow in 2026. No one country dominates, with notable increases expected from Barrick Mining's Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, Gold Fields' Salares Norte in Chile, and Polymetal International's Nezhda in Russia. Output from primary silver mines will remain virtually flat year-on-year, supplying 28% of silver mine production. 

 

In contrast to output from primary gold and silver mines, supply from base metal operations is expected to decline marginally year-on-year. Gold, copper, and silver prices have reached all-time highs, enabling lower production volumes to deliver higher revenues. 

 

Silver recycling is projected to rise 7%, with volumes surpassing 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012. Most scrap sources are expected to post high single-digit growth, led by silverware as consumers increasingly take advantage of elevated prices. As a result, the silver market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026 for the sixth consecutive year, at a noteworthy 67 million ounces.

 

SILVER INVESTMENT

The global economic and geopolitical environment is likely to remain supportive for precious metals prices in 2026, the report said. In addition, physical liquidity in the London silver market may remain relatively tight. Furthermore, a still-supportive macroeconomic backdrop and forecast strength in gold should help limit downside risks for the silver price, even though heightened price volatility will remain a feature for the foreseeable future, it said.

 

Silver prices have risen 11% in 2026 as of Feb. 9. Escalation of geopolitical tensions, concerns about the US Federal Reserve's independence, and persistent uncertainty surrounding US policy have continued to support investment in precious metals, the report said. Coin and bar demand has strengthened in recent months, while global ETP holdings stand at an estimated 1.31 billion ounces.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.67

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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