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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude oil price to average $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 per barrel in 2027, compared with an average of $69 per barrel in 2025. The downward revision in the forecast is driven by high global oil production causing oil inventories to rise. The revision in forecast is despite the near-term increase in prices and short-term disruptions to oil supply, the agency said in its Short-term Energy Outlook for February. 

 

"The Brent crude oil price averaged $67 per barrel in January, the highest since September 2025, as weather-related events disrupted the global crude oil supply and escalating tensions with Iran put upward pressure on prices," the agency said. 

 

In January, unplanned disruptions to crude oil production in the US and Kazakhstan tightened near-term oil supplies and caused crude oil prices to rise, the agency said. The disruption to crude oil production in the US was driven by cold weather, which the agency estimates reduced production by 320,000 barrels per day in January. In Kazakhstan, power outages at the major Tengiz oilfield, along with a drone attack and severe weather at the producer's primary export terminal in Novorossiyk, Russia, together reduced oil output by more than 400,000 barrels per day in January.

 

"Despite near-term tightness from disruptions, we assess that strong global oil production growth will continue to outpace oil consumption over our forecast, driving our assessment that global oil inventories will increase," the agency said. Global crude oil inventory builds are expected to average 3.1 million barrels per day in 2026, from an average build of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, before decreasing to an average of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2027. 

 

Although crude oil prices are expected to decline in 2026 and remain under $60 per barrel in 2027, both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries policy and China's continued strategic inventory builds will limit the decline, the agency said. A large portion of oil inventory builds last year were in strategic stockpiles in China, which limited the fall in price because these builds acted as a source of demand. "We assume that China will continue building strategic stockpiles at nearly the same rate of about 1.0 million barrels per day in 2026, before reducing strategic builds in 2027," the agency said. 

 

Global liquid fuels consumption is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027, the agency said. Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven by non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Consumption in these countries is likely to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027. "Most non-OECD (non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries) growth is concentrated in Asia. We forecast total liquid fuels consumption in China increases by 0.2 million barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027. We expect India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by 0.3 million barrels per day in both forecast years," the agency said.  

 

Global liquid fuels production growth will slow to an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026 and 900,000 barrels per day in 2027, the agency said. Global liquid fuels production growth is driven by strong growth outside the Organization of the Petroleum Countries and its allies, primarily from countries in South America, along with higher crude oil production of the OPEC and its allies. "Global liquid fuels production growth is driven mostly by countries outside of OPEC+ in 2027 as we assume OPEC+ targets will remain at 2026 levels and the group's production will increase only slightly next year," the agency said.  

 

At 1158 IST, the most active April contract of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was up 0.6% at $69.22 per barrel and the most active March contract of crude oil on the NYMEX was up 0.6% at $64.36 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.68

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Reshma Ravi

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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