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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate for global wheat supply by 600,000 tonnes to 1.10 billion tonnes for 2025-26 due to lower beginning stocks and a decline in production, the department said in its February report. 

 

The department has raised Argentina's wheat production estimate to a record 27.8 million tonnes in 2025-26. But this increase is more than offset by lower production in Turkey and Mongolia, it said.

 

The department has also increased its estimate for global wheat consumption in 2025-26 by 200,000 tonnes to 824.1 million tonnes, primarily due to firm demand for food, seed and industrial use from several countries, which more than offset lower feed and residual demand from Canada and Turkey. 

 

Global wheat trade is estimated to be higher by 2.2 million tonnes at 222.0 million tonnes, as higher exports from Argentina and Canada more than offset lower exports from the European Union, the report said. The estimate of Argentina's exports has been raised 2 million tonnes to a record 18 million tonnes on robust December and January shipments and highly competitive export prices.

 

The department has cut the 2025-26 global ending stocks estimate by 700,000 tonnes to 277.5 million tonnes. However, the estimate remains at a five-year high with significant year-on-year increases for all major exporters, it said.

 

For India, the department has retained its wheat production estimate for 2025-26 at 117.95 million tonnes. Its forecast for domestic consumption is unchanged at 112.51 million tonnes, and the estimate for ending stocks is also retained at 17.24 million tonnes.

 

RICE 

Global rice production is estimated at 541.28 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from last month's view of 541.16 million tonnes. Global rice supplies are estimated at 732.6 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimate, due to higher production in Cambodia. World consumption of rice is lowered by 300,000 tonnes to 541.7 million tonnes, mainly due to a lower consumption forecast for Myanmar, the report said.

 

Global rice trade estimates are decreased by 200,000 tonnes to 63.3 million tonnes for 2025-26, primarily due to a lower export forecast from Thailand, where prices are above Asian competitors. Meanwhile, global ending stocks are expected to rise 500,000 tonnes to 190.9 million tonnes, reflecting increases in Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia.

 

For India, the department has kept its estimate for 2025-26 rice production unchanged at 152.0 million tonnes. Consumption is also seen unchanged at 127.0 million tonnes. It expects rice exports from the country at 25.0 million tonnes, unchanged from the January estimate. Forecasts for ending stocks in 2025-26 have also been kept unchanged from the previous month's estimate at 48 million tonnes.  End

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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