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Informist, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service has cut its estimate of India's rapeseed (mustard) acreage for 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) by 1.6% to 9.1 million hectares from 9.25 million hectares earlier. The primary reason for this reduction is a shift by farmers to wheat after strong southwest monsoon rains last year boosted soil moisture and water resources, which are more conducive for growing wheat, it said in a post last week.

 

In Rajasthan--the largest rapeseed producer--as well as in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, farmers shifted to wheat due to favourable moisture conditions. In some areas, rain spells in early October--during the rapeseed sowing period--also necessitated re-sowing, which impacted the rapeseed area harvested. Even after the downward revision, acreage under rapeseed exceeds last year's figure by 2%.

 

Following the lowered acreage estimate, the Foreign Agricultural Service also lowered its estimate of mustard production for 2025-26 to 11.9 million tonnes from 12 million tonnes earlier. The revised production estimate, too, is nearly 2% higher than last year's figure.

 

The domestic rapeseed consumption has been revised downward to 11.9 million tonnes, representing a 2.2?crease over the initial forecast of 12.1 million tonnes, it said.

 

The Foreign Agricultural Service has reduced the rapeseed crushing estimate for 2025-26 to 10.7 million tonnes from the initial forecast of 10.9 million tonnes, reflecting the decreases in acreage and production. Despite this adjustment, the current estimate is still 2% higher than last year's figure of 10.5 million tonnes.

 

"This growth across marketing years is driven by sustained demand from crushers and millers, who continue to meet the traditional preference for rapeseed oil among Indian consumers. Rapeseed oil consumption is maintaining its popularity in both urban and rural households. Furthermore, rapeseed meal demand from China has also increased in the past few months after a 100 percent retaliatory tariff on rapeseed meal and oil imports from Canada," it said.

 

It has revised the rapeseed oil production estimate for 2025-26 to 4.2 million tonnes, representing a 2?crease from its earlier projection. However, the revised estimate remains 2.5% higher than last year's figure.

 

"Observations from the recent crop tour and feedback from field sources indicate that favorable temperatures and the use of improved seed varieties have supported the podding stage, likely resulting in increased oil content and extraction rates exceeding 38%. Additionally, rainfall in the last week of January 2026 is expected to further enhance oil content," it said.

 

On the policy front, the Foreign Agricultural Service noted that industry sources have said that Rajasthan will introduce a price support programme, Bhavantar Yojana, similar to the programme for soybeans in Madhya Pradesh. The programme, once implemented, is expected to support any decline in rapeseed prices.

 

The Foreign Agricultural Service has revised downward its rapeseed meal production estimate by 1% to 6.4 million tonnes. "In the past, India's rapeseed crushing was motivated by strong demand for both oil and meal. However, since the last two years due to geopolitical tensions between India and Bangladesh, the primary impetus for crushing is the heightened demand for oil."  End

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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