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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended sharply lower against the dollar Wednesday as banks persistently bought the greenback on behalf of importers, dealers said. The appreciation in the Indian unit Tuesday led to dollar demand, given the attractive levels, they said.

 

"After yesterday's rundown, importers have got the chance to bid at these levels, they are going to buy at every dip," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 90.4350 a dollar Wednesday, down sharply from 90.2650 Tuesday. The Indian currency moved in a range of 27 paise during the day.

 

After appreciating 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, the rupee came under pressure in early trade with traders saying the depreciation bias on the Indian currency remains intact. Tuesday, the rupee had logged its biggest single-day gain in over seven years after India and the US announced the long-awaited trade deal, which reduces US import tariff on Indian goods.

 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday confirmed the tariff on Indian goods exports to the US have been lowered to 18% from 50%. The US had slapped 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, including 25% punitive tariff for India's purchases of crude oil from Russia. Market participants now await details of the trade deal. The two countries will soon issue a joint statement on the details of the deal, Goyal said Tuesday.

 

However, the rupee was supported by dollar sales from banks that sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities. Wednesday, the benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex indices ended 0.1% and 0.2% higher, respectively.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.4350	90.4300	90.2600	90.5400	90.2650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	222.41	227.09	227.74	219.90	224.07

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Wednesday and remained down after the result of the Reserve Bank of India's three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction was announced. 

 

The central bank carried out an auction for buy-sell swaps worth $10 billion between 1030 IST and 1130 IST using the multiple-price method. The RBI set a cut-off premium of 748 paise at the auction. Under the buy-sell swap, the RBI bought dollars for immediate delivery and will sell them for delivery after three years. The median of an Informist poll of 12 foreign exchange dealers had seen the cut-off premium at 744.00 paise.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.45%, lower than the previous close of 2.48%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 222.41 paise, against 224.07 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Market participants will keep a lookout for further details and commentary on the India-US trade deal. 

 

Dealers expect importers and oil marketing companies to continue purchasing dollars due to their attractive levels. They also expect the RBI to shore up foreign exchange reserves by purchasing dollars if the rupee appreciates further towards the 90-a-dollar level. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.00-90.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.00 and support at 91.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen slips ahead of Japan election; euro, sterling up

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3727	1.3733	1.3692	1.3698
EUR/USD	1.1829	1.1839	1.1809	1.1817
NZD/USD	0.6039	0.6053	0.6027	0.6045
AUD/USD	0.7032	0.7043	0.7014	0.7021
USD/JPY	156.4260	156.4920	155.7050	155.7680
USD/CAD	1.3638	1.3651	1.3629	1.3640
EUR/JPY	185.0100	185.1680	183.9200	184.0000
CHF/USD	1.2897	1.2911	1.2872	1.2898
EUR/CHF	0.9171	0.9184	0.9159	0.9161

 

NEW DELHI – The yen fell 0.4% against the dollar Wednesday as market participants braced for Japan's snap lower house election. Growing prospects that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's party will score a landslide victory in the election on Sunday, and secure a mandate for her expansionary fiscal policy, have kept investors on edge amid concern over Japan's worsening finances.

 

Meanwhile, data released Wednesday showed Japan's services activity expanded at its quickest pace in nearly a year and the overall private sector posted the fastest growth in 32 months. Japan's final services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 53.7 in January from 51.6 in December, marking the 10th consecutive month of growth and slightly higher than a flash reading of 53.4. A print above 50.0 indicates growth in activity, while that below 50.0 a contraction.

 

The euro was up 0.1% against the dollar ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday, with investors watchful of on any comments about how the currency's valuation might affect the policy path. The pound sterling was up 0.2% against the greenback ahead of Bank of England's meeting on Thursday. Both the central banks are expected to hold rates steady.

 

The Australia dollar remained higher, rising 0.1% against the US unit, as the central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on Tuesday, marking the Reserve Bank of Australia's first rate hike since November 2023 as inflation continues to climb.

 

The dollar index was broadly steady on Wednesday. At 1445 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.37, against 97.38 Tuesday and 97.60 Monday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium falls ahead of RBI's buy-sell swap auction result

 

	AT 1355 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2850	90.4300	90.2600	90.5325	90.2650
1-year dollar-rupee forward (paise)	222.07	227.09	227.74	221.53	224.07

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell ahead of the result of the Reserve Bank of India's three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction Wednesday, as demand at the auction was likely lower than expected, dealers said. 

 

The central bank carried out an auction for buy-sell swaps worth $10 billion between 1030 IST and 1130 IST using the multiple-price method. The RBI may set a cut-off premium of 744 paise at its swap auction Wednesday, according to an Informist poll. 

 

"Forward levels have come down quite a bit, it seems like the cut off will come lower than we had expected," a dealer at a foreign bank said. Under the buy-sell swap auction, the RBI will buy dollars for immediate delivery and sell them for delivery after three years, injecting rupee liquidity into the banking system.

 

Meanwhile, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the recent appreciation in the rupee, limiting losses for premiums, dealers said. The Indian currency surged 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years. 

 

At 1355 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.45%, lower than the previous close of 2.48%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 222.07 paise, against 224.07 paise Tuesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply down as importers buy dlrs; FX inflows support

 

	AT 1305 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.4325	90.4300	90.3525	90.5325	90.2650

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the recent appreciation in the Indian unit on the back of announcement of the India-US trade deal, dealers said. The Indian currency surged 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years. 

 

"We are seeing demand (for dollars) from corporates but it is limited, which is why there is some support around 90.60," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I believe the overall trend will remain of rupee appreciation."

 

Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars, likely for foreign portfolio inflows into domestic equities, which limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. Risk appetite among investors has improved after India and the US Monday announced the much-awaited trade deal, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods. 

 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday confirmed that the tariff on Indian goods exports to the US have been lowered to 18% from 50%. The US had imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, which included 25% punitive tariff for India's purchases of crude oil from Russia. Market participants now await futher details of the US trade deal. The two countries will soon issue a joint statement on the details of the trade deal, Goyal said Tuesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.20 and 90.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.60 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 4

 

NEW DELHI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 90.5000 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.4300 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.2650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	-	91.00	89.80	-
Foreign bank	91.00	90.85	90.00	89.80
Brokerage firm	90.85	90.60	90.00	89.80
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.80	90.00	89.60

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls as importers buy dollars; US trade deal details awaited

 

	AT 0925 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.5000	90.4300	90.4300	90.5325	90.2650

 

NEW DELHI - The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Wednesday as banks bought dollars, likely on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the recent appreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. The rupee soared 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years, as India and the US announced the much-awaited trade deal, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods. 

 

"The depreciation bias for rupee is still there," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "This buying (of dollars) is indicative of that. I am expecting more upside (in dollar-rupee) during the day."

 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday confirmed that the tariff on Indian goods exports to the US have been lowered to 18% from 50%. The US had slapped 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, which included 25% punitive tariff for India's purchases of crude oil from Russia. Market participants now await futher details of the US trade deal. The two countries will soon issue a joint statement on the details of the trade deal, Goyal said Tuesday.

 

"Ultimately, the directional cue for the rupee will hinge on confirmation of the final trade agreement and its specifics," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. "That clarity will determine whether this move extends — or pauses for consolidation."

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.20 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.60 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Chinese yuan tad up after strong econ data

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as traders are still digesting Kevin Warsh's nomination by US President Donald Trump as the next Federal Reserve chief. The appointment has eased some of the concerns about the Fed's independence after Trump's constant attacks on the central bank and current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

 

The dollar index was broadly steady in early trade. At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.40, against 97.38 Tuesday and 97.60 Monday. 

 

The Chinese yuan gained 0.1% against the dollar after data on Wednesday showed China's services activity expanded at its quickest pace in three months in January. The RatingDog China General Services Purchasing Managers' Index edged up to 52.3 in January from 52.0 the previous month, the highest reading since October. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction.

 

The South Korean won was down 0.2% against the dollar. Most board members of the Bank of Korea continued to share concerns about a weaker won fuelling financial market instability, minutes of the bank's previous meeting showed on Tuesday, signalling a prolonged pause in its easing cycle. Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a five-month low in January, largely in line with market expectations. Both the Taiwan dollar and the Phillipine peso were down 0.1% against the dollar. The Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht were up 0.2%.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 4

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.80	90.20
State-owned bank	90.50	90.00
Private-sector bank	90.60	90.20
Private-sector bank	90.70	90.35
Private-sector bank	90.65	90.20
Foreign bank	90.85	90.00
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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