More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

MUMBAI – Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean in the past few months have indicated a general easing of La Nina during the latter part of the Southern Hemisphere summer season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report. All international models, consistent with the bureau's model, indicate a continued warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean with a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation state favoured through at least late autumn. Some of these models also suggest a possibility of El Nino development in June, the bureau said. 

However, the bureau notes that currently, there is a "very long" lead time for the prediction of El Nino, and forecasts beyond autumn are highly uncertain. In the Southern Hemisphere, summer is from December to March while autumn spans from March to June.

Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific show a general easing of the La Nia pattern. Sea surface temperatures in the centrea tropical Pacific Ocean are now within the neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation range, which is between (-)0.8 degrees Celsius and 0.8 degrees Celsius. As of Sunday, the latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value rose to (-)0.75 degrees Celsius, the bureau said.

Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

The recent warming in the Pacific sub-surface suggests that further decay in La Nina conditions is likely in the coming weeks, the bureau said. Cloudiness near the International Date Line has been close to average in the last week, which indicates slight El Nino conditions, it said.

As of Sunday, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value was 10.3, which is above the La Nina threshold of 7, the bureau said. The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole continues to be neutral. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index was 0.59 degrees Celsius, above the positive threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole is typically neutral from December to April, and these positive values are not expected to be sustained, the bureau said. The bureau's model forecasts Indian Ocean Dipole to remain neutral till at least the end of autumn, it said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius for at least eight weeks as typical of a positive index and values below (−)0.4 degrees Celsius for the same duration as typical of a negative index.

According to the India Meteorological Department, La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures being below normal over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Indian bureau said there's a 75% chance of La Nina conditions transitioning into neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in Feb-Mar.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.