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Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

 

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--Kpler: India's Jan Russian crude imports at 1.16 mln bpd, down 4% on month 
--Kpler: Russia's share in India's crude imports at 22% in Jan vs 25?c 
--Kpler: India's total crude oil imports rise to 5.25 mln bpd in Jan 
--Kpler: Russia among India's top crude suppliers despite recent moderation 
--Kpler: India US trade deal unlikely to lower Russian oil imports near term 
--Kpler: Russian crude oil volumes locked in for next 8-10 weeks 
--Kpler: Sharp reduction in Russian crude oil imports by India unlikely 
--Kpler: Rapid Urals exit poses commercial hurdles for Indian refiners 
--Kpler: US crude oil imports may rise to 10% of India's intake 
--Kpler: US crude seen displacing West African grades, not Russian barrels 
--Kpler: India's refined product yield structure to remain broadly unchanged 
--Kpler: India oil imports from Russia seen 1.1 mln bpd-1.3 mln bpd till Apr

 

By Pallavi Singhal and Ashutosh Pati

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – The India–US trade deal, announced Monday, is unlikely to result in a reduction in India's crude oil imports from Russia in the near term, Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling, at global trade analytics firm Kpler told Informist. Russian crude oil supplies for the next 8-10 weeks are largely secured, with cargo deals finalised, he said.

 

India and the US concluded a trade deal under which Washington, DC, will cut its reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18%, US President Donald Trump said Monday. The White House had imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods in August, which included 25% punitive tariff for continued imports of Russian crude oil. According to Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him that India would stop buying Russian crude oil and start buying energy products from the US and, potentially, Venezuela.

 

India's crude oil imports from Russia have been falling under US pressure. Imports in January touched a new low, easing to about 1.16 million barrels per day, from around 1.22 million barrels per day in December when they touched a three-year low, data from Kpler showed.

 

Russian barrels accounted for roughly 22% of India's total crude imports of about 5.25 million barrels per day during the month, down from around 25% in December, as refiners raised intake from West Asia. Russia had accounted for 36% of India's crude oil imports in November. India had sharply increased its reliance on Russian oil following the imposition of sanctions against Moscow for the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Indian oil imports from the US rose to their highest in more than four years in October.

 

Despite the moderation, Russian crude remains economically critical to India's complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on Urals crude relative to Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude prices, said Ritolia. As a result, imports are expected to remain broadly stable in the range of 1.1 million-1.3 million barrels per day through the March quarter and into the early June quarter, even as marginal sourcing patterns adjust, he said. 

 

Ritolia said the recent easing of Russian inflows reflects short-term balancing rather than a structural shift, with higher crude volumes from West Asia largely offsetting the decline. While refiners are technically capable of operating without Urals crude, a rapid disengagement would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive, making any recalibration gradual rather than immediate, he said.

 

A more pronounced reduction in Russian crude oil imports is likely to require a clear policy shift by the government, which appears unlikely, given that energy security and economics remain dominant policy priorities amid increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics in global oil markets, Ritolia said.

 

Instead, the India–US trade deal is expected to reshape marginal crude oil flows rather than displace Russian barrels. US crude is emerging as the primary beneficiary and could account for up to about 10% of India's crude oil intake, largely at the expense of lighter West African grades rather than Russian supply, he said.

 

Ritolia added that Venezuelan crude may reappear opportunistically, but volumes are expected to remain episodic, constrained by weaker economics, sanctions compliance, insurance, and blending requirements. This positions Venezuelan barrels more as a pricing lever than a structural alternative, he said.

 

Overall, the changes are expected to affect the mix and not the volumes, with India's refined output seen largely unchanged as refiners switch to similar grades using their current infrastructure, according to Ritolia.

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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