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Informist, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – Easing geopolitical tensions, a broader risk-off sentiment in global markets, and a rebound in the US dollar are likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure in February. Even though any escalation in US-Iran tensions could lead to supply disruptions, a slow growth in demand will outpace supply side pressure and prices will be range-bound this month, according to analysts. 

 

According to the median of estimates from seven broking firms polled by Informist, the February crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen in the range of INR 5,240-INR 6,100 per barrel this month. The March contract of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $56 and $68 per barrel.

 

"Crude oil prices will see some volatility in February given the geopolitical uncertainty," Kumar Jain, analyst at Prithvi Finmart, said. But prices will largely remain on the lower side amid de-escalation in tensions between the US and Iran. Crude oil declined more than 5% on Monday as easing tensions between the US and Iran erased the geopolitical premium on prices. Oil prices marked their steepest single-session drop in over six months on Monday. This fall was triggered by US President Donald Trump's statement that Iran was engaged in "seriously talking" with Washington, a signal of de-escalation with the member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

 

Officials from both countries are due to meet in Turkey for talks this week. The prospect of immediate US military action against Iran has subsided as negotiations on a nuclear deal are imminent. As a result, the risk premium on oil has faded, bringing prices lower.

 

Meanwhile, there is limited risk of supply disruptions as the winter storms have paused. Winter ‌storms had hobbled crude production and drove US Gulf Coast crude exports to zero over the weekend. The production has been gradually restored. Moreover, President Trump claimed Monday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi "agreed to stop buying Russian oil". He said that, as part of the India-US trade deal, India would purchase more oil from the "United States and, potentially, Venezuela." This means that there will not be any supply concerns even domestically, Jain said. 

 

Further, even though demand growth is currently strong, in February, demand for crude oil is going to take a hit as there will be a holiday in China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, on account of Chinese New Year, Ajay Kedia, founder and director at Kedia Advisory, said. Oil prices can also be under pressure due to strength in the dollar after Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. A stronger dollar makes commodities such as oil and gold more expensive for foreign investors, weighing on demand. Analysts said the firmer dollar has added further downside pressure to oil, which had already begun correcting after a sharp rally earlier this year.

 

In addition, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could also lead to a fall in prices. Envoys from Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington will meet in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday for talks aimed at ending the war. 

 

As per the proposal, any Russian breach of a ceasefire would prompt a response within 24 hours, starting with a diplomatic warning and, if necessary, action by Ukrainian army to halt the infraction. Ukraine has agreed with Western partners that any persistent Russian violations of a future ceasefire agreement would trigger a coordinated military response from Europe and the US. In such a scenario, however, analysts also believe there could be an upside in crude oil prices if geopolitical concerns persist. 

 

"Crude looks strong in Feb (February), down right now because of broader fall in commodities. US oil production is expected to decline, and that could support prices. US and China might build their strategic reserves," Kunal Shah, head of commodities research at Nirmal Bang, said.

 

Meanwhile, eight member countries of the OPEC and its allies have reaffirmed their decision made in November to pause production increments in March 2026 due to seasonality. The eight countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — reiterated that 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full, subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner, OPEC said in a press release on Sunday.  

 

The eight OPEC countries will closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reversing the additional voluntary production adjustment, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustment of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023.

 

At 1911 IST, the most-active March contract of crude oil on the NYMEX was up 0.6% at $62.50 per barrel. The most-active February contract of crude oil on the NYMEX was up 0.7% at INR 5,663 per barrel.

 

Following are the details of the estimates of brokerages, arranged in alphabetic order, on crude oil prices for February:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support ($)	NYMEX WTI resistance ($)
Kedia Advisory	5,240	6,360	58.4	68.2
Kotak Securities	5,400	6,000	58	65
Nirmal Bang	5,250	6,100	56	73
Prithvi Finmart	5,300	5,950	56	66
Reliance Securities	5,200	6,000	55	75
SMC Global Securities	5,150	6,150	56	66
Ventura Securities	5,200	6,300	55	68
Median	5,240	6,100	56	68

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.27

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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