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Informist, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended sharply higher against the dollar Monday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over six weeks, due to the Reserve Bank of India's aggressive intervention through dollar sales and a sharp rise in domestic equities, dealers said. 

 

"There is no way the rupee could have recovered this much without the RBI. It is all their doing," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "One more push by them (RBI) could help take the rupee towards 91.00 (a dollar)."  

 

The Indian currency snapped its three-day losing streak and settled at an almost two-week high of 91.5125 a dollar, appreciating 0.5% from its previous close of 91.9825. The rupee outperformed its Asian peers Monday, which fell 0.1-0.6% against the dollar. 

 

Despite a surge in the dollar index, the rupee started the week on a strong footing, as the RBI intervened by selling dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The Indian unit was trading around its record low of 91.9950 a dollar in the offshore NDF market just a few minutes before the spot market opened, where it opened at 91.7600, thanks to the RBI.

 

The dollar index gained sharply after US President Donald Trump Friday nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair and as the US currency recovered from a sharp selloff last week. Warsh is seen as likely to support lower interest rates but would stop well short of the more aggressive easing associated with some of the other potential nominees. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.07, against 97.15 Friday and 96.16 Thursday. 

 

Shortly after opening, the central bank also marked its presence in the spot market, pushing the Indian unit further higher, dealers said. "RBI's strategy was clear since morning, they don't want rupee to touch 92.00 as of now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "They chose the most illiquid time of the day to intervene, so they did not have to spend much." The central bank likely sold around $2.0-$2.5 billion in the spot market on Monday, some dealers said. 

 

RBI's strong support of the rupee prompted traders to sell the greenback to trim their long dollar bets, triggering stop-losses at multiple dollar-rupee levels, further boosting the Indian unit, dealers said. The rupee hit a high of 91.4300 per dollar during the second half of the day.

 

The Indian unit did not take any cues from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcements in the Union Budget for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) on Sunday, where she proposed to raise the securities transaction tax on futures to 0.05% from 0.02% and on options premiums and exercise of options to 0.15?ch from 0.1% and 0.125%, respectively, dealers said. 

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which capped gains in the Indian currency, dealers said. A fall in other Asian units also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The benchmark equity indices closed higher on Monday as investors covered their short positions after the heavy selling on Sunday, following the presentation of the Union Budget for FY27. The Nifty 50 and Sensex closed 1.1% and 1.2% higher, respectively.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.5125	91.7600	91.4300	91.8325	91.9825
1-year dollar-rupee forward (paise)	238.05	238.34	238.76	237.00	237.83

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures on Monday as the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in July, they said.

 

Given that spot dollar sales drain rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

A rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on forward premiums, some dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.26% Friday from 4.24% Thursday. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.60%, slightly lower than the previous close of 2.61%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 238.05 paise, against 237.83 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Market participants will watch out for the RBI's intervention. Market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars to prevent the rupee from inching closer to the key 92.00 level, especially after the recent strong support.

Given the uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid fears of further depreciation of the local currency. They also expect foreign portfolio outflows to continue exerting pressure on the rupee. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.30-91.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.40 and support at 92.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar rallies against commodity currencies; yen dn

 

	AT 1518 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3704	1.3705	1.3661	1.3690
EUR/USD	1.1859	1.1875	1.1840	1.1852
NZD/USD	0.6018	0.6033	0.5991	0.6018
AUD/USD	0.6958	0.6971	0.6909	0.6958
USD/JPY	154.8560	155.5080	154.5550	154.7400
USD/CAD	1.3637	1.3674	1.3613	1.3622
EUR/JPY	183.6490	184.2800	183.1930	183.4164
CHF/USD	1.2910	1.2962	1.2903	1.2927
EUR/CHF	0.9185	0.9189	0.9158	0.9168

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rallied against currencies sensitive to commodity prices on Monday, as a sharp fall in gold and silver spooked markets. The greenback rose against bullion and silver-driven currencies of Australia, New Zealand and Norway, as the commodities extended losses after the crash on Friday. Silver futures fell nearly 20% Monday after reports that its loss on Friday was the largest on record.

 

The dollar was also supported by US President Donald Trump nominating former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to head the US central bank when Jerome Powell's leadership term ends in May. Warsh is seen as likely to support lower interest rates but would stop well short of the more aggressive easing associated with some of the other potential nominees.

 

At 1510 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.14, against 97.15 Friday and 96.16 Thursday. 

 

The yen was down 0.1% against the dollar. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Saturday that a weak yen has positive aspects, in comments that appeared to contrast with repeated fMinistry marnings about possible intervention to support the currency.

 

In a campaign speech ahead of next week's election, Takaichi said that despite criticism of weakness in the yen, it represents a valuable opportunity for export sectors from food industries to automobiles, noting that currency depreciation has acted as a buffer against US tariffs and provided tangible support to the economy.

 

The euro and the pound sterling traded flat against the dollar on Monday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Rises more on RBI's persistent intervention, gains in equities

 

	AT 1415 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.4700	91.7600	91.4400	91.8325	91.9825

 

India Rupee: Rises more on RBI's persistent intervention, gains in equities

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose further against the dollar due to the Reserve Bank of India's likely persistent intervention through dollar sales and a rise in domestic equities, dealers said. The Indian unit hit a high of 91.4400 a dollar, appreciating almost 0.6% against the greenback from the previous close. 

 

"The rupee is stable above 91.60 because there is constant selling (of dollars) in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Equities have also somewhat corrected from yesterday (Sunday), although not entirely."

 

Dealers said the central bank has been intervening in the spot market since morning, in order to prevent the Indian unit from inching closer to the psychologically-crucial 92.00 per dollar level. The RBI had likely intervened in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, before the spot market opened, as well, they said. 

 

RBI's strong defence of the rupee prompted traders to sell the greenback to trim their long dollar bets, leading to stop-losses being triggered on long dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, further boosting the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, they said. At 1415 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.30 and 91.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.40 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premiums dn as RBI holds buy-sell swap to avert liquidity drain

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.5700	91.7600	91.5100	91.8325	91.9825
1-year dollar-rupee forward (paise)	237.55	238.34	238.76	237.00	237.83

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures on Monday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in July, they said.

 

The rupee surged against the dollar Monday as the central bank likely sold dollars aggressively, both in the spot and offshore non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. The Indian currency appreciated 0.5% against the dollar and hit a high of 91.5100 a dollar.

 

"RBI has been in spot since morning, as expected, they are receiving through nats (state-owned banks) in forwards now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "They are hitting the near tenures for now." Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

A rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on forward premiums, some dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.26% Friday from 4.24% Thursday. At 1310 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.59%, lower than the previous close of 2.61%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 237.55 paise, against 237.83 paise Friday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 2

 

NEW DELHI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 91.6800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.7600 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.9825 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.40	92.00	91.40	91.00
Foreign bank	92.30	92.00	91.50	91.20
Brokerage firm	92.50	92.00	91.45	91.20
Brokerage firm	92.20	92.00	91.20	91.00

 

(Pratiksha)

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 India Rupee: Surges as RBI intervenes heavily via dollar sales in spot, NDF

 

	AT 1005 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6175	91.7600	91.5400	91.8325	91.9825

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars heavily, both in the offshore non-deliverable forwards and spot market, dealers said. "RBI has showed clear intent to keep the rupee above the 92.00 level today," a dealer at a state-owned bank said "The negative bias for rupee is not going anywhere. The budget was also negative for the near term."

 

The Indian unit was trading around 91.96 a dollar in the offshore NDF market just a few minutes before the opening of the spot market, where it opened at 91.7600, thanks to the RBI. The Indian currency surged to a high of 91.5400 a dollar shortly afterwards, as the central bank likely stepped into the spot market as well, they said. 

 

The Indian unit was weighed down by a rise in the dollar index after US President Donald Trump Friday nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair, dealers said. Warsh is seen as likely to support lower interest rates but would stop well short of the more aggressive easing associated with some of the other potential nominees. At 1005 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.10, against 97.15 Friday and 96.16 Thursday.

 

Further, risk appetite among investors was hit after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in the Union Budget for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) on Sunda, proposed to raise the securities transaction tax on futures to 0.05% from 0.02% and on options premiums and exercise of options to 0.15% from 0.1% and 0.125%, respectively, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.40 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.50 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX:Mixed after Trump nominates Warsh as US Fed chair pick

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as traders assessed the impact of US President Donald Trump's announcement Friday to nominate former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Trump nominated Warsh to head the US central bank when Jerome Powell's leadership term ends in May. Warsh is seen as likely to support lower interest rates but would stop well short of the more aggressive easing associated with some of the other potential nominees.

 

Trump said on Friday it would be inappropriate to ask Warsh whether he would cut interest rates, but added he was confident Warsh was inclined to lower borrowing costs. At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.12, against 97.15 Friday and 96.16 Thursday. 

 

Tracking the rise in the dollar index, the South Korean won fell 0.9% against the dollar even after South Korea's factory activity expanded at the strongest pace in almost one-and-a-half-years in January, as export demand growth surged to a near five-year high, data showed on Monday. The purchasing managers index for manufacturers rose to 51.2 in January from 50.1 in December, marking the highest reading since August 2024. Both the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit were down 0.5% against the dollar. 

 

The Chinese yuan rose 0.1% against the dollar after data Monday showed China's factory activity expanded at a faster pace in January. The RatingDog China General PMI rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December, marking the highest since October. The Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso and the Thai baht were flat against the greenback. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 2

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.30	91.80
State-owned bank	92.15	91.70
Private-sector bank	92.20	91.80
Private-sector bank	92.15	91.75
Foreign bank	92.00	91.65
Brokerage firm	92.25	91.50
Brokerage firm	92.15	91.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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