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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – India's jeera market is showing signs of recovery after nearly two years of sustained weakness, with prices rising on lower acreage, improving export demand, and a gradual tightening of supplies, analysts said. While fresh arrivals in late February are expected to cap gains in the near term, analysts say the market is in a stronger position than last year, limiting downside.

 

Jeera prices have been on a steep downward cycle since touching record highs in 2023. Prices surged to an all-time high of INR 65,900 per 100 kilogram in September 2023, before entering a sustained decline that bottomed out at INR 18,520 per 100 kg in July 2025, according to Ajay Kedia, founder and director of Kedia Capital Services Pvt. Ltd. The fall came on the back of a sharp rise in global supply following aggressive sowing and a correction in demand after prices moved to levels that curtailed consumption. As production expanded in India and other origins, availability improved, extending the price correction through much of 2024 and 2025, Kedia said.

 

The price cycle can be traced back to previous seasons. In 2022–23, low prices discouraged farmers from planting jeera, pushing acreage down to about 825,000 hectares as growers shifted to crops such as cotton and mustard, which offered better returns, according to Kedia. Cultivation that year, he said, fell to around 5.5 million bags (50 kg each), tightening supplies significantly.

 

However, this triggered a strong supply response. Area under cultivation jumped to around 1.24 million hectares in 2023–24, as farmers returned to jeera cultivation, attracted by high prices driven by the earlier shortfall. The response was not limited to India. China, one of the world's largest buyers of jeera, also increased sowing during the same period after being hit by the spike in Indian prices. According to Kedia, Chinese output that year is estimated to have risen to around 60,000 tonnes, from 15,000–20,000 tonnes earlier, significantly adding to global supply. "Once both India and China expanded production at the same time, the market simply could not absorb the volumes," Kedia said, adding that this supply surge led to a prolonged price correction.

 

The market has now turned once again. Sowing for the current season has slowed markedly, with overall jeera acreage estimated to be down by about 12% on year, Kedia estimates. In Gujarat, the country's largest producing state, sowing has fallen to around 398,000 hectares, down more than 16% from a year ago, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Rajasthan has also seen acreage decline by at least 10%, according to market estimates. Farmers have shifted back to crops such as chana, wheat, and mustard, which are procured by the government at minimum support prices, while delayed sowing is expected to push back harvesting, tightening availability during the early arrival phase.

 

Production trends reflect the acreage contraction. India's annual jeera consumption is estimated at around 7 million bags. Output stood at about 11 million bags in 2023–24 and declined to roughly 9.0-9.2 million bags in 2024–25. For the current season, production is estimated at 8.0-8.1 million bags, with reduced output expected in both Gujarat and Rajasthan. Analysts say this decline is not severe enough to cause shortages but is sufficient to tighten the market when combined with steady demand.

 

Despite lower output, the presence of some carryover stocks has prevented immediate supply stress, though spot market availability remains tight. Kedia said farmers are still holding around 2 million bags, but added that only a limited portion of this is readily available for sale, restricting marketable supply.

 

At the same time, demand has strengthened on multiple fronts. Domestic consumption has risen due to festivals, the ongoing marriage season, and advance buying ahead of Ramzan, beginning around Feb 18. Export demand has also improved, according to Alok Kumar Pandey of SMC Global, supported by better enquiries during the Ramzan period and a weaker rupee, which has enhanced export competitiveness and realisations. In addition, the lower GST incidence of 5% has lowered costs and will further spur demand.

 

Prices have reflected this shift in sentiment. NCDEX jeera futures rose from around INR 20,300 per 100 kg in early November to about INR 24,580 by Jan 22, a gain of nearly 21%. The rally accelerated in January, marked by sharper daily moves and rising volatility. On Jan 21, prices jumped by INR 540 per 100 kg in a single session, while several sessions recorded intraday swings of INR 400–INR 500.

 

The NCDEX price behaviour suggests the move is being driven by fresh buying interest rather than short covering alone, according to Pandey. The average daily high–low range widened to about INR 614 per 100 kg in January, up from around INR 384 per 100 kg in November, representing a nearly 60% increase in short-term price volatility. Traders say such an expansion typically points to stronger participation and conviction, particularly when it occurs ahead of the arrival season.

 

Pandey said the recent strength should be seen in the context of seasonal trading patterns. "Prices usually come under pressure during the peak arrival period between February and April as fresh supplies enter the market, and we do expect some softness," he said. However, he added that the downside may be limited this year because carryover stocks are lower than last year and export demand is stronger. "Once arrivals are absorbed, prices tend to stabilise — around April — and then firm up again as we approach the festive demand cycle later in the year around September," he said, adding that traders generally prefer to buy during harvest and sell after September.

 

Fresh arrivals are expected to begin toward the end of February, though recent rainfall in key producing regions could delay arrivals by around 10 days, Pandey said. Prices are typically under pressure during the February–April window, but analysts say the pattern could be less pronounced this year. In 2025, prices briefly peaked in early April but then fell by around 4% month-on-month between April and September, weighed down by heavy carryover stocks, according to a note by SMC. This year, by contrast, prices are entering the arrival phase at higher levels, supported by lower stocks, delayed harvesting and firmer export demand.

 

Looking ahead, both Kedia and Pandey expect prices in 2026 to trade above 2024 and 2025 levels, though they do not see a return to historical highs. "Prices can move up to around INR 28,500 per 100 kg in the short term, but going beyond that would need a very strong trigger," Kedia said. For now, he expects prices to hold in the INR 27,500–INR 28,500 range until April, supported by weather concerns and delayed arrivals.

 

Exports remain a key swing factor. India accounts for about 75% of global jeera output, giving it a strong position in world markets. However, traders are closely watching developments in China, where sowing begins in February. Clearer signals on global supply are only expected by April, and any sharp rise in Chinese output could weigh on export demand and cap prices later in the year, according to Kedia. Moreover, any sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in West Asia can also temper export demand. 

 

The most-active March contract of jeera was trading 0.7% lower at INR 24,075 per 100 kg Tuesday.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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