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Informist, Friday, Jan. 23, 2026

By Pratiksha

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar, just shy of the psychologically-crucial 92.00 per dollar level, owing to losses in domestic equities and dollar purchases for importers, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed down by speculative dollar buying by offshore market participants and foreign fund outflows from equities, they said.

While the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in through dollar sales to prevent the Indian currency from touching the key level, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. The rupee fell to a record low of 91.9650 a dollar on Friday. 

"There was relentless buying (for dollars) after 91.75 broke, and that just sort of continued till RBI came around 91.95," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The way RBI is letting rupee go, I would not be surprised if there is more fall in store for rupee."

The rupee settled at 91.9500 on Friday, 0.4% lower than its previous close of 91.6300. The Indian currency fell over 1% against the dollar this week, logging its biggest weekly decline since late July.

The Indian currency started the day higher against the dollar as the dollar index fell owing to investors shifting to riskier assets after US President Donald Trump backed off from tariff threats against European nations and ruled out taking Greenland by force, dealers said.

Trump said on Thursday that the details of a US agreement over Greenland were still being worked out after he stepped back from threats to seize the Danish territory. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.38, higher than 98.27 Thursday but lower than 98.79 Wednesday. Asian units gained 0.1-0.8% against the dollar, with the Malaysian ringgit being the best performer. The rupee was the worst perfromer among its Asian peers on Friday. 

Moreover, some dealers speculated that the RBI might have sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, before the opening of the spot market, which likely boosted the Indian currency. The rupee hit a high of 91.4025 a dollar, shortly after opening.

However, the Indian unit could not hold on to gains for long as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. Given the prolonged delay in finalising the trade deal between India and the US, and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, importers bought dollars, fearing depreciation in the local currency, dealers said.

During the last few hours of trade, the Indian unit fell past the technical support of 91.70 a dollar as domestic equities fell sharply, driven by losses in shares of Adani group companies. Shares declined after reports said the US Securities and Exchange Commission had sought permission from a US court to issue legal summons to the conglomerate's Chairman Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani, who is an executive in the group. This pertains to an alleged fraud and a $265 million bribery scheme, Reuters reported. Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone fell nearly 11% and 8%, respectively, and were the worst hit Nifty 50 constituents. The Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1% and 0.9% lower, respectively, on Friday. 

Banks also bought dollars for foreign fund outflows from domestic equities, which weighed on the Indian unit. Continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, dragging the rupee to a record low, dealers said.

"The Indian rupee succumbed to a record low, bucking under the weight of voracious dollar demand from importers and corporates ahead of the long weekend and the upcoming Union Budget," said Dilip Parmar, currency analyst at HDFC Securities. "This fragility intensified as domestic equities faced a fresh bout of liquidation, erasing Thursday's tentative recovery."

The central bank likely stepped in to sell dollars, in order to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the 92.00 level, dealers said. The central bank likely sold around $1.5 billion-$2.0 billion in the spot market, according to dealers. "I had expected RBI to intervene heavily after such a large move (in the rupee) this week, but its presence was very mild," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower for the fourth consecutive trading day as dealers speculated the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank has been likely selling dollars for forward delivery, for maturity in various tenures, for the last three days, they said.

However, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation in the rupee, which supported the premiums, dealers said. 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.57%, lower than the previous close of 2.59%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 236.66 paise, against 237.33 paise Thursday.

OUTLOOK

The currency market is closed on Monday for Republic Day. On Tuesday, the rupee may take cues from movement in the dollar index and developments related to US tariffs, dealers said. 

Some market participants expect the RBI to intervene through dollar sales to prevent the rupee from falling past 92.00, most said they are uncertain about the same, especially after the lack of aggressive intervention on Friday. 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing depreciation of the local currency. They also expect foreign portfolio outflows to exert pressure on the rupee. So far this month, foreign portfolio investors have pulled out almost $3.00 billion from domestic equities.

"The outlook for spot USD-INR (dollar-rupee) remains resolutely bullish," Parmar said. "We anticipate the pair may surpass the psychological 92 threshold while find the support at 91.10." 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.70-92.20 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.00. 

India Rupee: Slumps to record low as importers buy dlrs, local equities fall

NEW DELHI – The rupee slumped to a record low of 91.9500 a dollar as banks heavily bought dollars for importers and foreign fund outflows from corporates, dealers said. While the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in through dollar sales, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. 

"92.00 is just 5 paisa away, rupee has already touched 91.95, so it hardly matters now if the figure will break or not," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

Continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, aggravating the rupee's fall, dealers said. A sharp fall in domestic equities also exerted downward pressure on the Indian unit, they said. At 1415 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.9% each. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.60 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Premium up on lack of RBI buy-sell swap, importer fwd dlr buys

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium inched up Friday, snapping a three-day falling streak, as the Reserve Bank of India did not conduct buy-sell swaps in the market, dealers said. Forward premiums had fallen across tenures in the last three days as the central bank likely sold dollars for forward delivery, for maturity in various tenures, they said.

"RBI was very active on the recieving side last few days. Today they are not active, so naturally some paying has come," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Some importers are also hedging in nears."

Some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation in the rupee, which also supported the premiums, dealers said. The Indian currency slumped to a record low of 91.9250 a dollar on Friday. 

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.61%, higher than the previous close of 2.59%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 239.11 paise, against 237.33 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Steady as bks' dlr buys for importers offset weak dollar index

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar on Friday as banks' dollar purchases for importers offset the positive impact of a weak dollar index, dealers said. "Lot of dollar bids ahead of the long weekend, primarily importers," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Dollar is lower against all crosses so demand is coming from all directions." 

Dealers said importers were stocking up on the greenback on every dip in the dollar/rupee pair ahead of the long weekend. 

The dollar weakened after Trump said on Thursday that the details of a US agreement over Greenland were still being worked out after he stepped back from threats to seize the Danish territory. At 1315 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.45, higher than 98.27 Thursday but lower than 98.79 Wednesday. 

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars in the spot market to prevent the rupee from falling to a record low. The rupee hit a high of 91.4050 a dollar earlier in the day, shortly after opening.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.30 and 91.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.40 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 23

NEW DELHI – At 1156 IST, the rupee was at 91.6225 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.5000 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.6300 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Sharply up as dollar falls; RBI intervention in NDF speculated

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as the dollar index fell owing to investors shifting to riskier assets after US President Donald Trump backed off from tariff threats against European nations and ruled out taking Greenland by force, dealers said. 

Trump said on Thursday that the details of a US agreement over Greenland were still being worked out after he stepped back from threats to seize the Danish territory. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.35, higher than 98.27 Thursday but lower than 98.79 Wednesday. A rise in Asian currencies also supported the Indian unit, they said. Asian units gained between 0.1-0.6% against the dollar, with the Malaysian ringgit being the best performer.

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India might have sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, before the opening of the spot market, which likely boosted the Indian currency. The rupee hit a high of 91.4050 a dollar, shortly after opening.

However, importers may step in through dollar purchases around the current dollar-rupee levels, which may limit gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. "The pattern for rupe has been that the upmove is rarely sustained," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I am expecting we will be back to below 91.60 levels."

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.30 and 91.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.40 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dlr index falls; Malaysian ringgit surges

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies gained against the dollar Friday due to a fall in the dollar index as investors shifted to riskier assets after US President Donald Trump backed off from tariff threats against European nations and ruled out taking the autonomous territory of Greenland by force. A rise in domestic equities also supported the currencies.   

Trump said on Thursday that the details of a US agreement over Greenland were still being worked out after he stepped back from threats to seize the Danish territory. At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.35, higher than 98.27 Thursday but lower than 98.79 Wednesday.

Meanwhile, data released Thursday showed the US economy grew a bit faster than initially thought in the third quarter. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week, suggesting the labour market likely maintained a steady pace of job growth in January.

The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.6% against the dollar, the most among its peers. Bank Negara Malaysia Thursday kept its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75% at its first meeting of 2026, reinforcing a policy stance anchored in domestic stability rather than near-term stimulus. 

The Indonesian rupiah rose 0.3% against the dollar and the Philippines peso and Taiwan dollar were up 0.2%. The Chinse yuan was also up 0.1%. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won fell 0.2% against the dollar. (Pratiksha)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 23

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

(Pratiksha)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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