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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026

MUMBAI – Prices of crude palm oil are expected to remain rangebound in February due to seasonal decline in production and stocks, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Council. It projected the price range between 4,000 ringgits (INR 90,000) per tonne to 4,300 ringgits per tonne in February, according to a release Wednesday.

However, a sustained price rally in palm oil as also other vegetable oils would require "a progressive roll out of Indonesia's B45 biodiesel mandate, a recovery in crude oil prices, or clarity on the United States biofuel policy that boosts soybean oil demand," it said.

It also noted that CPO prices have remained firm above 4,000 ringgits per tonne through January in spite of some headwinds, indicating that this persistence is proving to be a near-term structural floor.  

The recent decision by the Indonesian government to postpone its B50 biodiesel programme has eased a degree of uncertainty in the market. The market focus now is on fundamentals such as production, exports, and inventories, it said.

Global import demand for palm oil is expected to rise, potentially surpassing soybean demand in the first quarter of 2026. "Despite palm oil's clear price advantage, India's import demand for palm oil has yet to fully recover, likely due to the recent weakening of the Indian rupee against the ringgit," it said.

However, this situation may not last for long. "This setback should be viewed as temporary, as India will ultimately need to import palm oil regardless of currency movements, given its structural cost competitiveness."

Indonesia has recently raised its CPO export levy to 12.5% from 10.0% earlier, with the new rate coming into effect from Mar. 1. This, too, is expected to improve Malaysia's palm oil market share in India, it said. February's shorter trading month, coupled with holidays, will curb harvesting and tighten supply, further propping up prices, it argued.  End

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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