Kedia Advisory sees silver prices rising to $100 per ounce in medium term
This story was originally published at 12:53 IST on 19 January 2026
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MUMBAI – Silver prices are expected to rise to $100 per ounce in the medium term, after rising to $94 per ounce, due to geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and underlying structural supply-demand dynamics, Kedia Advisory said in a report. Silver prices rose more than 5% Monday, approaching over $94 per ounce, due to renewed geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on eight European nations over his push to acquire Greenland. "The announcement triggered a classic risk-off response across global markets, with investors rotating into safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, while equities and risk assets weakened," Kedia Advisory said.
Trump announced plans to impose 10% tariffs from Feb. 1 on imports from eight European nations, with the tariffs potentially rising to 25% by June if negotiations over Greenland fail. Although the US administration later confirmed that critical minerals such as silver would be exempt, since silver was added to the US critical minerals list in 2025, the situation increased fears of trade retaliation, it said. "European officials discussed countermeasures, including potential levies on €93 billion (euros) of US goods, reinforcing silver's role as a geopolitical hedge amid rising policy uncertainty," Kedia Adviosry said.
Despite the recent price volatility, silver's underlying supply-demand balance remains structurally tight and data supported. Global silver supply has increased only marginally, with mine production rising 1-2% annually, constrained by declining ore grades and rising all-in sustaining costs, which now average $18-$22 per ounce for primary silver producers. Nearly 70% of global silver output is produced as a by-product of copper, zinc, and lead mining, limiting the sector's ability to respond quickly to higher silver prices.
In terms of physical supply, the London market has shown recurring tightness. The London Bullion Market Association vault holdings fell over the past year, reflecting sustained outflow to Asia, particularly India and China, where combined silver imports rose sharply on an on-year basis. "Estimates suggest that a large share of remaining London inventories are ETF-encumbered, reducing freely available metal during demand spikes and increasing the risk of temporary squeezes," Kedia Advisory said.
Meanwhile, strong demand for silver due to usage of solar photovoltaics alone now accounts for 15-20% of total global demand, while electronics, electronic vehicles, and digital infrastructure add further structural consumption. This combination of constrained supply and non-cyclical demand underpins ongoing market tightness.
The macroeconomic environment remains mixed but medium-term supportive for silver, underpinned by elevated debt levels and constrained policy flexibility. US treasury yields have moved higher, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.23%, the highest in over four months, due to economic data, where industrial production and retail sales both exceeded expectations and renewed uncertainty about the independence of the US Federal Reserve. "Higher nominal yields and a firmer US dollar contributed to silver's recent pullback, as non-yielding assets typically face short-term pressure in such environments," Kedia Advisory said.
Market participants await for personal consumption expenditures data and GDP data, due on Thursday, which will provide further cues on expectations around rate cuts later in the year. "In the absence of a clear and sustained disinflation trend, real rates are likely to remain a medium-term tailwind for precious metals, including silver," it said. End
US$1 = INR 90.96
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Reshma Ravi
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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