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Informist, Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

MUMBAI – While neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to continue for the next six months, the probability of an El Nino event becomes dominant by the end of July, the APEC Climate Center said in its monthly outlook for February to July. Chances of neutral conditions remain high at 81.7% during the first half of the forecast period, while chances of an El Nino event increase to almost 70% in May-Jul, the Korean climate centre said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.31 degrees Celsius in February, before increasing to up to 0.93 degrees Celsius in July. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degree Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

Negative sea surface temperature anomalies — which pertain to cooler temperatures — over the central Pacific Ocean are expected to "disappear rapidly" during the forecast period, the centre said. Warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface during the second half of the forecast period indicates early development of El Nino, it said.

There is a probability of slightly above-normal temperatures in most parts of India during Feb-Apr, the centre said. A "tendency" of above-normal rainfall is also expected in parts of the country during the same period, it said.

During May-Jul, there is an "enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the globe except some regions such as Europe, Central Asia, Russia, Southern Africa and India, North America (except for western USA), and southern South America, the centre said. Normal rainfall is most likely over India during the same period, it said. 

For Jan-Mar, the India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall across the country at 88% of the long-period average. The prevailing La Nina conditions are expected to persist for another month or two before transitioning to El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions during Jan-Mar, the Indian weather department said. It did not issue temperature forecasts for Jan-Mar but said above-normal cold wave days are expected in some areas of central India, east Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar in January.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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