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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

 

MUMBAI – Pessimism shrouded the Indian stock market, with market participants adding bearish positions in the out-of-the money call options expiring next week. Derivative analysts expect the traders to take a sell-on-rise approach in the coming sessions amid geopolitical risks. The sentiment in the market was dented ever since US favoured imposing 500% tariffs on nations purchasing Russian crude oil, putting India in a tight spot. 

 

"...sentiment is further aggravated by the unfolding situation in Venezuela," Bhavya Shah, technical and derivatives analyst at StoxBox, said. "The sudden leadership change and the US move to control Venezuelan oil reserves have injected fresh volatility into global energy markets, creating a highly uncertain macro environment," he added. "These dual external shocks have triggered aggressive FII outflows and forced domestic markets into a defensive shell ahead of the Q3 (Oct-Dec) earnings season," Shah said.

 

Monday, the Nifty 50 had made a rebound of 300 points amid claims from the US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor saying that both the countries would take a close call on the trade deal Tuesday. However, late Monday, a commerce ministry official said there are no trade talks scheduled with the US this week. There has been no communication from Washington regarding discussions for the trade deal, the official said.

 

Analysts had said that the Indian equities would take cues from updates from the expected meeting, however, the meeting fizzled out, weakening the morale. Furthermore, experts on early Monday had said that delay in India-US trade deal is a negative for the country, especialy in terms of fiscal deficit and currency. They also said that the revival of Indian corporate has not arrived yet.

 

Tuesday, the benchmark Nifty 50 ended at 25732.30 points, down 57.95 points or 0.2%. The 50-stock index had fallen as low as 25603.30 points, but came off lows towards the end. "Looking ahead to next week's expiry, the data suggests that traders are already positioning for a lower ceiling," Shah said.

 

In the options chain, the premiums in out-of-the-money 26000 call declined 52%, and saw the highest concentration of open interest. "The 26000 strike is seeing significant call writing, with OI (open interest) jumping by over 55,000 contracts and this is a classic defensive setup," Shah said. Even though the Nifty 50 is currently trading well below this level, the aggressive call writing here confirms that traders do not expect the benchmark to reclaim the psychological mark anytime soon," Shah said.

 

Investors are seen taking a sell-on-rise approach in the near term, two derivatives analysts said. Premium at 24500-25000 put declined 27-38%, indicating that the traders were short at that level. This implies that the fall in the index may not be that steep. That said, 25700 put saw an 11% rise in premium, and significant rise in open interest, suggesting that investors added short positions.  

 

"Call writing was seen at multiple strikes with maximum addition at 26000 CE (call) followed by 25800 CE (call), said Vipin Kumaar, senior technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market. The put-call ratio is at 0.65 showing negative sentiment in the near-term, Kumaar said. 

 

--Nifty 50 January closed at 25780.40, down 95.60 points; 48.10-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 February closed at 25916.00, down 101.50 points; 183.70-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 March closed at 26096.50, down 101.70 points; 364.20-point premium to the spot index

 

Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, HCL Technologies, Eternal, Dixon Technologies (India), BSE, State Bank of India, Vedanta, Maruti Suzuki India, Infosys, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Manappuram Finance, Vodafone Idea, National Aluminium Co., Hindalco Industries, and Trent were the most actively traded underlying stocks Tuesday. End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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