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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

 

MUMBAI - The global metals market is bracing for its biggest shake-up since China's 2000s super-cycle. Unlike in the past, no single boom is expected to play a dominant role in the market. Instead, a patchwork of policy maneuvers, geopolitical tensions, and niche demands is rewriting the rules, according to ING Economics.

 

"The global metals market is undergoing perhaps its most significant shift since the China-led super-cycle of the 2000s. Unlike that era, the next phase will not be driven by a single growth engine or a simple macro narrative. What is emerging instead is a more fragmented, policy-driven and geopolitically charged market," the global think tank said in a release on Monday.

 

Although China continues to be an important consumer, it has lost its dominance in global metals demand. Currently, demand for metals is more sector-specific and shaped by the drive towards electrification, clean energy, defence spending and data infrastructure, rather than broad-based industrial expansion. "However, this shift is uneven, policy-driven and highly sensitive to technology choices and regulation," it said.

 

The metals leading the rally right now are the ones critical for global electrification, it noted.

Copper remains central to grid expansion, renewables, and electric vehicle infrastructure, while silver's role in solar panels and advanced electronics has raised its strategic importance. Both metals have recently been included in the US Geological Survey List of Critical Minerals, underlying their growing importance.

 

Additionally, rising defence spending across regions is boosting the need for aluminium, titanium, copper, and specialty alloys.

 

On the other hand, more 'traditional' metals that are still heavily linked to construction, infrastructure, and global manufacturing cycles, like iron ore or zinc, remain more sensitive to cyclical economic conditions.

 

While demand for these crucial metals is rapidly rising, supply appears to be less elastic. "Years of underinvestment, declining ore grades and longer permitting timelines mean that higher prices no longer deliver rapid supply responses. Environmental and social constraints are reinforcing this rigidity, particularly in developed economies," the paper said.

 

Moreover, on the supply side, a new factor – resource nationalism - has come into play in the last few years. For example, Indonesia has banned export of nickel ore and China has tightened rare earth exports. These are part of a broader trend.

 

"Governments are actively reshaping supply chains to capture more value and secure strategic materials, making supply both slower and riskier. Even when prices rise, new tonnes arrive slowly, and often from jurisdictions facing higher geopolitical or ESG risk," it said.

 

The last few years have seen multiple instances of policy intervention affecting metals flows, especially for critical raw materials. These include export restrictions on important raw materials as also broader trade and technology controls, to build their own stocks.

 

"Unlike commercial demand, stockpiling is price-insensitive and occurs in distinct procurement cycles, adding a new layer of volatility. As more governments accelerate efforts to bolster national stockpiles, it is likely to become a persistent feature of metal markets' dynamics. Markets that once reacted primarily to economic data are now increasingly shaped by diplomacy, sanctions and industrial policy - a structural shift reshaping pricing dynamics and global flows," the paper said.

 

The paper has argued that these factors will make the next metals cycle look fundamentally different from those of the past. "The new phase for metals markets will be shaped by diversified demand sources driven by electrification, defence and digital infrastructure, slower supply responses amid more constrained and politicised supply, increased volatility from geopolitics and decarbonisation, and the growing role of stockpiling and defence spending." Understanding these drivers will be central to navigating metals markets in 2026 and beyond, it said.  End

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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