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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its estimate for global wheat supply by 4.3 million tonnes to 1.102 billion tonnes in 2025-26 as higher production in Argentina and Russia more than offset a reduction in output in Turkey, the department said in its January report. 

 

The department has raised Argentina's wheat production estimate by 3.5 million tonnes to a record 27.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, nearly 50% higher than the previous year. It also raised the production estimate for Russia by 2 million tonnes to nearly 90 million tonnes based on higher yields. 

 

The department has also increased its estimate for global wheat consumption in 2025-26 by 900,000 tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, primarily due to larger consumption in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco. Global wheat trade is estimated to be higher by 1.1 million tonnes at 219.8 million tonnes, as larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan are only partly offset by lower forecasts for the European Union and Ukraine, the report said. The department has raised the 2025-26 global ending stocks estimate by 3.4 million tonnes to 278.3 million tonnes.  

 

For India, the department has retained its wheat production estimate for 2025-26 at 117.95 million tonnes. Its forecast for domestic consumption is unchanged at 112.51 million tonnes, and the estimate for ending stocks is also unchanged at 17.24 million tonnes.

 

RICE 

Global rice production is estimated at 541.2 million tonnes in 2025-26, up 750,000 tonnes from last month's view. Global rice supplies are estimated at 732.4 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from the previous month's estimate, due to higher beginning stocks in China and larger production in China and Japan.

 

Global rice trade estimates are raised nearly 300,000 tonnes to 63.5 million as higher exports for China more than offset reductions for Pakistan and the US, the report said. The department has raised its estimate for global consumption of rice to 542 million tonnes, up over 100,000 tonnes from the previous month's projection. 

 

For India, the department has kept its estimate for 2025-26 rice production unchanged at 152 million tonnes. Consumption is also seen unchanged at 127 million tonnes. It expects rice exports from the country at 25 million tonnes, unchanged from December's estimate. Forecasts for ending stocks in 2025-26 have also been kept unchanged at 48 million tonnes.  End

 

Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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