USDA lowers 2025-26 global cotton production estimate to 119.43 mln bales
This story was originally published at 10:32 IST on 13 January 2026
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MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its estimate for global cotton output in 2025-26 (Aug-Jul) to 119.43 million bales (1 bale = 480 pounds) from 119.79 million bales projected in December, it said in the January edition of its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates monthly report. "The forecast for China's cotton crop is raised 1 million bales, which is more than offset by reductions for India, US, Argentina, and Turkey, resulting in a reduction of over 350,000 bales to world cotton production," the report said.
World cotton consumption in 2025-26 is projected to be higher at 118.92 million bales, compared with 118.61 million bales projected last month. "Global cotton consumption is raised over 300,000 bales as an increase for China is partially offset by reductions for Turkey and Nicaragua," the report said.
The department has marginally raised its estimate for global cotton exports for 2025-26 to 43.77 million bales from 43.74 million bales. The estimate for cotton trade has been raised by a negligible amount as higher imports by India are seen largely offset by reductions from Turkey and Nicaragua, the report said.
For India, the department has slightly lowered its estimate of production to 23.50 million bales from 24.00 million bales. However, the department has kept its estimate for India's consumption unchanged at 25 million bales. It has raised its projection of India's cotton exports to 1.40 million bales from 1.30 million bales. The department has lowered its estimate of the country's beginning stocks to 9.22 million bales from 10.02 million bales and the ending stock estimate to 9.32 million bales from 10.52 million bales estimated in December. End
Reported by Reshma Ravi
Edited by Nishant Maher
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