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Informist, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

 

MUMBAI – After a sustained bull run in precious metals, the complex is likely to see further price upside, as geopolitical and other uncertainties are seen continuing to support portfolio diversification, Metals Focus said in a report on Friday. The underlying drivers of the gold rally in 2025 will remain in place this year as well, although the silver rally may reverse after mid-2026, it said.

 

Precious metals enjoyed a remarkable 2025, with gold, silver, platinum and ruthenium hitting fresh record highs, while palladium and rhodium surged to multi-year peaks. These advances were fuelled by uncertainty surrounding US trade and foreign policy, concerns about the long-term outlook for US debt and the dollar's role as a reserve currency, and anxiety over growth and its potential impact on equities, the precious metals research consultancy firm observed.

 

"Looking ahead, we anticipate further price upside across the precious metals complex, as persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support portfolio diversification. For the white metals, US tariff uncertainty and favourable underlying fundamentals are likely to provide an additional boost to prices," it said.

 

In the precious metals complex, gold has started 2026 on a strong note, after the US incursion in Venezuela boosted its safe-haven appeal. Opening near $4,320, the yellow metal surged to $4,500, just 1?low the all-time high of $4,550 hit on Dec. 26. While gold has since eased on profit-taking as well as futures selling linked to annual commodity index rebalance, the downside has been limited.

 

"Looking ahead, Metals Focus maintains a bullish outlook, with prices expected to achieve new record highs, peaking well above $5,000. In essence, the underlying drivers which drove the gold rally during 2025 will remain in place this year. Since the start of the Trump 2.0 administration, the abrupt and often unpredictable nature of US policy moves has remained a key driver of sentiment towards gold. Concerns about the health of the US economy will also favour gold." Fed rate cuts will continue to provide support to gold prices, it said.

 

Additional factors in favour of gold are worries about persistent fiscal deficits, the rapid accumulation of US debt, and questions surrounding the Fed's independence. "These factors raise doubts about long-term debt sustainability and, by extension, the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. With few viable alternatives, gold has benefited significantly. Strong equity markets have also encouraged strategic allocations into gold, as elevated valuations prompt investors to diversify portfolios," the note said. Robust central bank demand should also provide support.

 

Silver is seen building on its gains, but with exceptional volatility. Index rebalancing may cause some liquidation, but that may be a short-term phenomenon.

 

"In particular, silver should benefit from many of the macroeconomic factors driving gold investment. More importantly, physical liquidity in the London market is likely to remain tight in the coming weeks, driven by strong investment demand, tariff uncertainty keeping substantial silver stocks in the US, refining capacity bottlenecks, and a structural deficit. Given silver's smaller market size, these factors may well amplify price movements, with a three-digit peak looking likely this year.

 

"We believe some further outperformance of silver against gold is likely, with the gold:silver ratio potentially falling further. However, we expect the opposite from mid-2026 onwards. This assumption rests on market tightness gradually easing, provided clarity emerges on US tariffs. Meanwhile, following silver's exceptional price gains, efforts to reduce silver usage in the industrial space are expected to accelerate. That said, the impact of these demand losses is likely to be mitigated by continued strong investment demand," Metal Focus said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.23

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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