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Informist, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

 

By Reshma Ravi

 

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity of India and COMEX rose Friday amid continued geopolitical tensions. However, gains in gold prices are likely to be capped in the near term because of the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index that is currently underway. Growing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year also supported prices. Market participants now await the US non-farm payrolls data for December, due later in the day, for cues on the Fed's interest rate trajectory.

 

At 1625 IST, the most-active February GOLD contract on the MCX was up 0.4% at INR 138,272 per 10 grams. The most-active February contract on COMEX was up 0.5% at $4,480.5 per ounce.

 

Spot gold of 99.9% purity was traded in the Mumbai market at INR 137,195 per 10 grams, up from INR 135,443 per 10 grams Thursday, said Kumar Jain, spokesperson at the India Bullion and Jewellers Association.

 

Lingering geopolitical tensions are causing gold prices to rise, said Manoj Jain, director, Prithvi Finmart. Concern over a potential US move to take control of Greenland have resurfaced after President Donald Trump and senior members of his administration renewed calls for US control of the island, according to Dow Jones. Meanwhile, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone assault on Ukraine overnight, the Associated Press reported. Tymur Tkachenko, head of Kyiv's city military administration, said multiple districts of the capital were struck.

 

"Investors, currently expecting at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, are looking to the non-farm payrolls data for monetary policy cues," SMC Global Securities said in a report. Typically, a lower interest-rate environment boosts the appeal of non-interest-yielding precious metals. 

 

The non-farm payrolls data are expected to show that employers added 60,000 workers in December, according to the median of estimates by economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5% in December, after an unexpected increase to a four-year high of 4.6% in November.

 

"Major banks continue to upgrade long-term price targets, with HSBC and UBS projecting gold prices approaching $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, citing geopolitical risks, rising fiscal stress, and lower real yields," Kedia Advisory said in a note.

 

The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has created a bit of anxiety in the market, analysts said. "The annual Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing--a periodic adjustment of commodity weightings to keep the index aligned with market conditions--begins this week and is expected to maintain pressure on the precious metals market," SMC Global said. The annual rebalancing exercise began Thursday and will end Jan. 15.

 

According to Kedia Advisory, gold and silver, which posted massive gains of 65% and 148%, respectively, last year, are undergoing the most significant adjustments. The yellow metal's weight in the index will drop to 14.9% from 20.4%. Silver's weight is likely to fall drastically to 1.45-1.40% from 9.6%. "This will lead (to) an estimated $14 billion in selling pressure, with gold accounting for approximately $7 billion and silver facing up to $7.1 billion in futures sales," the brokerage said in its note.

 

SILVER contracts rose on the MCX and COMEX, tracking the rise in gold prices. At 1426 IST, the most-active March silver contract on the MCX was up 2.5% at INR 249,300 per kg. The most-active March contract on COMEX was up 3.5% at $77.77 per ounce.

 

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 136,500–INR 140,500 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $4,430.0–$4,530.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 247,500-INR 253,000 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $76.00-$78.60 an ounce

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.16

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Nishant Maher

 

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