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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026

MUMBAI – Fitch Solutions company BMI has raised its coking coal price forecast for 2026 to $190 per tonne from its previous estimate of $180 per tonne on expectations of continued strong import demand from India and China. Despite a bearish outlook for China's steel sector, with production expecting to decline by 4% to 935 million tonnes in 2026, a sharp fall of 8% in domestic coking coal production to 454 million tonnes is anticipated. This is expected to support seaborne coking coal prices, although strong exports from landborne suppliers, including Mongolia and Russia, are likely to cap price gains.

Looking at India, crude steel production rose 10% on year to 136 million tonne between January-October 2025, BMI said, citing the World Steel Association. However, coking coal production was down 10% in the fiscal year-to-date (April-October 2025) to 26.8 million tonne, with production from Bharat Coking Coal down 17% to 17.6 million tonne. "To level out the shortfall, India's coking coal imports have increased 8.6% between January-October 2025 to 50 million tonnes," it said.

In the long term, the coking coal prices forecasts for 2028 and 2029 remain unchanged at $184 per tonne and $180 per tonne respectively, reflecting rapid growth in steel production capacity in India, BMI said. Over the 2025–2034 period, India is expected to overtake China as the world's largest coking coal importer. "Since launching 'Mission Coking Coal' in August 2021, which aims to triple India's domestic coking coal production to 140 million tonnes by 2030, India's Ministry of Coal has reported robust growth in domestic output of coking coal. However, India will struggle to maintain this growth rate over our forecast period, given the majority of India's domestic coal reserves are made up of low-grade coal unsuited to steelmaking", it said.

Consequently, India will remain dependent on the seaborne market for coking coal, with the country's steel secretary expecting imports of the feedstock to rise to 160 million tonne from 58 million tonne by 2030. 

"Risks to our coking coal price forecast exist on both the downside and upside given current uncertain global conditions," it said. On the downside, a deep recession in developed markets could further weaken global manufacturing, steel, and construction activity. This would reduce coking coal demand and put downward pressure on prices, particularly if supply growth leads to higher inventories. On the upside, a recovery in China's construction sector and stronger steel output could drive a sharp increase in coking coal imports from Australia, potentially triggering a significant price rally, it said.  End

US$1 = INR 89.97

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Reshma Ravi

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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