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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026

MUMBAI – The La Nina event continues over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with the latest relative El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value for the week ended Sunday remaining below (-)0.80 degrees Celsius at (-)0.95 degrees Celsius, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report Tuesday. The bureau's model predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Nina levels until around late summer, before returning to neutral, which is on par with the bureau's assessments of other international models.

Summer season in the Southern Hemisphere spans from December to February. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Values of the index have been fluctuating around the La Nina threshold since mid-to-late September, the bureau said.  

Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean have shown consistent, though relatively weaker, signs of La Nina since mid-to-late September, the bureau said. As of Sunday, the 60-day and 90-day Southern Oscillation Index values are 5.0 and 7.7, respectively, both near the La Nina threshold, it said. 

The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, while the Oceanic Nino Index tracks the ocean part. The Southern Oscillation Index compares the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti, French Polynesia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, and is likely to remain so until at least the end of autumn, according to the bureau's model. Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere is from March to May.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius for at least eight weeks as typical of a positive index and values below (−)0.4 degrees Celsius for the same duration as typical of a negative index.

The prevailing La Nina conditions are expected to persist for another month or two before transitioning to El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions during Jan-Mar, the India Meteorological Department said in its monthly climate forecast on Jan. 1.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Nishant Maher

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