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Informist, Monday, Jan. 5, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – After a record run in December, gold prices are likely to consolidate with a positive bias in January, according to analysts. Though prices have recently pulled back from last month's highs due to profit-booking, the precious metal is likely to remain supported by de-dollarisation trends and increased geopolitical risks, they added. Analysts say the recent decline in prices is a pause after a strong rally rather than the start of a strong correction.  

 

As per the median of estimates from eight broking firms polled by Informist, the February gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India are expected to be in a range of INR 132,000-INR 141,500 per 10 grams in January. On COMEX, gold prices are seen in a range of $4,245 per ounce to $4,580 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing, the February contract was 2.6% up at $4,443.6 per ounce on COMEX. It had hit a record high of $4,564.70 per ounce on Dec. 26.

 

According to analysts, gold prices also retreated after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures twice in December amid extreme price volatility, which raised the cost of holding futures positions. "Prices corrected after COMEX sharply increased margins after a robust rally seen in November and December," Manoj Kumar Jain, director at Prithvi Finmart, said. "We have seen some leveraged positions squared off, and that is why we have seen a sharp correction in international as well as domestic markets," he added.  

 

However, analysts largely view the recent decline in prices as a healthy consolidation phase, rather than the start of a stronger correction. "The market can show some volatility around $4,500-$4,550 levels. A range-bound market after a strong rally is still a healthy price base," Jateen Trivedi, analyst at LKP Securities, said. 

 

Trivedi expects gold prices to remain range-bound in January, with support of $4,200 per ounce and resistance around $4,500-$4,550 per ounce. "Once gold prices breach $4,200, it may start to trend lower to $3,700-$3,800 levels. That is a possibility, but as of now, we are not looking at those levels," he added. The lowest the February gold futures contract has traded so far in the month is $4,319.70 per ounce. 

 

On the domestic front, Trivedi said gold could see wider swings due to currency volatility. "MCX gold is a bit tricky because of rupee volatility. Prices could broadly trade between INR 132,000-142,000 per 10 grams," he said.

 

Analysts also pointed to strong safe-haven demand for gold amid rising tensions in West Asia, between the US and Venezuela, as well as between Russia and Ukraine. The bets of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with one expected as early as March, are also supporting prices. 

 

Prithvi Finmart's Jain said the downside in gold appears to be limited amid persistent geopolitical risks and continued central bank buying, particularly from China. Jain expects gold to trade in a range of $4,240-$4,580 per ounce in January. "A break above $4,555 may trigger further upside to $4,890-$5,000 per ounce," he said. On the domestic bourse, prices may trade around INR 128,800-INR 145,000 per 10 grams, with INR 140,500 seen as the key breakout level. 

 

In contrast, Kotak Securities struck a more bullish tone, noting that the precious metal may be closer to a breakout than an extended consolidation. "I won't be surprised if we see a breakout in January, February, or March," Anindya Banerjee, head, currency and commodity research, Kotak Securities, said. 

 

Banerjee is betting big on gold amid accelerated de-dollarisation trends globally. "The real driver for gold is diversification demand. Central banks and institutions have accelerated their shift away from dollar assets towards hard metals such as gold, silver, and other strategically important metals," he said. 

 

Amid strong fundamentals, Kotak sees gold prices with an immediate support of $4,395 per ounce and a stronger floor around $4,300 per ounce in January. The brokerage sees resistance at $4,470-$4,550 per ounce. He also highlighted that "institutional demand has not ebbed at all. The three pillars of demand for precious metals are basically consumption, diversification, and speculation," and noted that except for consumption demand, the other two legs remain strong. 

 

Jewellery demand remains price-sensitive and acts largely as a price-taker, but diversification demand is structural. "The biggest driving demand is diversification. Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar asset, and institutions are diversifying away from financial risks."

 

On speculation, Banerjee said it is "cyclical". "Whenever prices start to rise, you will see a lot more speculators joining in to play momentum." Kotak sees $5,000 per ounce as the first major target for gold in 2026, with a potential towards $5,500 per ounce. 

 

The following are the details of estimates of eight brokerages for gold prices in January, in alphabetical order:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)
Axis Securities	132,000	140,000	4,250	4,400
Kedia Advisory	129,200	142,500	4,080	4,580
Kotak Securities	135,000	141,000	4,300	4,550
LKP Securities	132,000	142,000	4,200	4,550
Nirmal Bang	130,000	145,000	4,130	4,630
Prithvi Finmart	128,800	145,000	4,240	4,580
Reliance Securities	133,000	139,000	4,350	4,500
SMC Global Securities	134,400	143,500	4,280	4,580
Median	132,000	141,500	4,245	4,580

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.27

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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