Informist Poll
India GDP growth seen at 7.5% in FY26 vs 6.5% in FY25
This story was originally published at 19:04 IST on 2 January 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Jan. 2, 2026
By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - India's GDP growth may rise to 7.5% in the current financial year ending March, thanks to quicker-than-expected expansion in the first half of the year with economic activity projected to slow down during Oct-Mar.
According to an Informist poll of 11 economists, India's GDP is expected to grow 7.5% in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). After shrinking 5.8% in FY21, the Indian economy grew by over 7% in each of the subsequent three financial years. In FY25, growth slowed down to a four-year low of 6.5%.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release its first advance estimate of GDP for FY26 at 1600 IST Wednesday. The first advance estimate is a key number for the government as it will form the basis for its Budget numbers for FY27.
The finance ministry will use the first advance estimate of FY26 GDP in current prices to assume a certain nominal GDP growth for FY27, which will then form the basis for various Budget numbers for next year, including the fiscal deficit target and growth in tax collections.
Should the first advance estimate of GDP peg FY26 growth at 7.5%, it would be higher than the latest projection of the Reserve Bank of India of 7.3%. The government in the Economic Survey for FY25 had pegged FY26 growth at 6.3-6.8%.
The Indian economy grew 8% in the first half of FY26, higher than expected. The GDP grew at a six-quarter-high pace of 8.2% in the September quarter, much higher than expectations. This prompted the RBI to raise its full-year growth forecast from 6.8?rlier.
The RBI has projected GDP growth slowing to 7.0% in the December quarter and further to 6.5% in the March quarter.
"...despite rising external trade headwinds, India's economic growth has continued to show improvement," BofA Securities India said in a report. "...the incoming data on consumption, investment and public spending have all been relatively supportive, accelerating in both November and December to some of the strongest composite momentum we have seen in data since the beginning of 2025, and set up a strong end to 2025, posing upside risks to our existing macroeconomic scenario."
While real GDP growth has been higher so far this year compared with a year ago, nominal GDP growth has slowed down. Nominal GDP growth fell to 8.8% in Apr-Sept, lower than 9.0% in the same period in FY25.
Nominal GDP is also trailing the 10.1% growth assumed in the Budget for FY26. Economists polled by Informist said nominal GDP growth could be 8.5% in FY26, the lowest in five years.
The following table details the FY26 GDP growth estimates of economists:
| ORGANISATION | GDP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| ANZ Bank | 7.3% |
| HDFC Bank | 7.4% |
| ICRA | 7.4% |
| YES Bank | 7.4% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 7.5% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 7.5% |
| ICICI Bank | 7.5% |
| Standard Chartered | 7.5% |
| Bank of America | 7.6% |
| IDFC FIRST Bank | 7.6% |
| State Bank of India | 7.6% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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