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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025

 

--Kpler:India's Russian crude imports in Dec at 1.2 mln bpd, dn 35% on month

--Kpler: Russia remained India's top crude oil supplier in Dec

--Kpler: India's total crude oil imports in Dec seen at 4.96 mln bpd

--Kpler: Russia's share in India's crude imports dips to 25% in Dec

--Kpler: India's crude imports from Russia in Dec lowest since Dec 2022

--Kpler: RIL, MRPL cut Russian crude imports in Dec

--Kpler: Russian crude to remain structurally embedded in India's imports

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – India's crude oil imports from Russia are expected to fall sharply to 1.2 million barrels per day in December, the lowest in three years and down from 1.84 million barrels per day in November, data from global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. 

 

Imports of Russian crude in December accounted for about 25% of India's total crude imports of 4.96 million bpl during the month, down from 38% in November. The decline follows sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil on Oct. 23, which came into effect on Nov. 21, prompting Indian refiners to scale back purchases from designated entities.

 

However, analysts say the decline largely reflects short-term adjustments in procurement patterns rather than a structural shift away from Russian crude. "This appears to be a near-term adjustment," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler, adding that Russian crude imports into India are expected to recover gradually from January as supply chains reconfigure and new intermediaries step in.

 

The drop in December has been driven mainly by reduced intake by large buyers such as Reliance Industries Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. have extended the deadline for distillers to deliver pending ethanol supplies, and both scaled back Russian crude purchases during the month, Ritolia said. Indian refiners have increased sourcing from West Asia, West Africa, and the Americas to bridge the gap.

 

Ritolia said that the decline in the headline number in December does not fully capture the underlying trade dynamics. "Beneath the surface, Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries, traders, and logistical workarounds," he said. "While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact."

 

Indian refiners are pivoting towards non-designated Russian suppliers and opaque trading channels, Ritolia said, with independent sellers stepping into commercial roles previously dominated by Rosneft and Lukoil. He added that Russian oil itself is not sanctioned – only specific producers, vessels, and service providers are, allowing non-sanctioned entities to legally supply crude as long as no restricted party is involved.

 

Prices have also adjusted to the new environment. Urals crude differentials against Oman/Dubai on a delivered ex-ship West Coast India basis have stabilised at a discount of around $6.50 per barrel since the beginning of December, Ritolia said. This represents narrowing of about $4.50 per barrel compared to levels seen before the sanctions announcement.

 

He noted that the decline in differentials also reflects a weaker medium sour crude market in Asia, with competing West Asian grades such as Arab Light and Basrah Medium shedding $1.50–$2 per barrel over the same period.

 

On a full-year basis, Russia remained India's largest crude supplier in 2025 despite the late-year disruption. India imported an average of about 1.70 mln bpd of Russian crude in 2025, marginally lower than around 1.78 mln bpd in 2024, data showed. Imports from Iraq also eased slightly year-on-year, while supplies from Saudi Arabia were broadly stable. In contrast, shipments from the UAE rose in 2025, reflecting refiners' tactical diversification during periods of volatility in Russian flows, Ritolia said.

 

"As long as broader secondary sanctions are not enforced, India is expected to continue importing Russian barrels as economics support the case," Ritolia said. "These barrels are likely to remain structurally embedded in India's crude slate, albeit increasingly through indirect and less transparent channels."  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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