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Informist, Friday, Dec. 26, 2025

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Copper futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India rose 8% and scaled a fresh record high on Friday, tracking the recent gains in global prices. Copper rose as the dollar weakened, with traders buying the industrial metal amid concerns about tighter global supplies in 2026. Analysts said futures prices are running ahead even as spot demand has slowed down at higher price levels. 

 

At 1907 IST, the January copper contract on MCX was up nearly 8% at INR 1,264.5 per kilogram, after hitting a fresh record high of INR 1,277.95 per kilogram. Copper prices are up nearly 60% on year and over 12% higher from a week ago, amid supply shocks due to disruptions at major mines, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions. Growing expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts next year and strong demand for copper in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence-related data centres are also supporting copper. 

 

Copper enters 2026 with structural tightness amid supply disruptions at major mines, including Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine. Market participants expect full recovery to take several years, with normal operations unlikely before 2027. Copper prices also rose as traders accelerated shipments to the US ahead of possible import tariffs, Kedia Advisory said in a note. "Copper's extraordinary rally this year has made it one of the best-performing commodities since 2009. Prices climbed to a historic $12,282 per tonne on the LME and around 1,200 per kg on the MCX," it added. Analysts expect copper prices to reach $13,000-$13,500 per tonne on the LME and around INR 1,300-INR 1,320 per kg on the MCX in the near term. 

 

The rally in red metal in domestic bourses is broadly tracking the recent run in global exchanges such as COMEX and LME. Although global prices are hovering near record levels, analysts note a growing disconnect among futures prices across major exchanges. While MCX copper rose 8% on Friday, COMEX prices are trading 3% higher, and Shanghai Futures Exchange prices were up nearly 1%. LME was shut on Friday due to Boxing Day. On Wednesday, LME copper hit a record high of $12,282 per tonne.

 

"Once LME opens on Monday, things should settle down and will have a better clarity of physical market activity," Navneet Damani, head of research, commodities, Motilal Oswal, said. Damani also said the year-end week usually sees significant market volatility. "From Dec. 22 to early January, very few traders are active globally. So, with little money also, you can move the markets," he said. 

 

Meanwhile, end-user demand has slowed down at higher price levels. "Copper prices surged significantly, leaving downstream semi-finished copper product enterprises generally facing challenges such as high costs, pressured processing fees, and shrinking profits. Struggling to survive under pressure from both sides—continuously rising raw material costs and persistently difficult-to-increase processing fees—these enterprises are caught in a difficult situation," according to Shanghai Metals Market. Downstream companies have cut production or deferred purchases to avoid expensive inventory, it added. 

 

Meanwhile, China is set to tighten oversight of new copper and alumina projects to curb irrational investment and disorderly expansion from 2026 to 2030, according to media reports. In addition, China's top smelters decided not to set guidance for copper concentrate processing fees for the first quarter of 2026 in a meeting on Thursday, as they grapple with historically low charges amid raw material supply shortage, SMC Global Securities said in a report. This comes after Chilean miner Antofagasta and a Chinese smelter agreed on a zero treatment and refining charge for 2026, highlighting tight ore availability. End

 

US$1 = INR 89.85

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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