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Informist, Friday, Dec. 26, 2025

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The government is likely to extend the policy of duty-free imports of tur and urad for a year beyond the current Mar. 31 deadline, according to analysts. With ample availability of imports and domestic production expected to be largely unchanged from a year ago, prices of pulses are expected to be in a range or up slightly in the first few months of 2026, they said.

 

"I think they will continue with duty-free imports of tur and urad. There is a logic there, because we still have lower production of these pulses, especially urad," said Satish Upadhyay, secretary, India Pulses and Grains Association. India's urad output has been declining since the crop year 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), with the first advance estimate for 2025-26 pegging kharif urad production at 1.2 million tonnes, down 10% on year.

 

"Inflation is in control (so) the consumer (affairs department) may not change import policies, but the agriculture department may seek to change import policies," said Rahul Chauhan, president, IGrain.

 

The import policy on chana and masur, both of which currently attract 10% duty, is also unlikely to be changed, as per analysts. "I think there will be pressure on the government to raise the duty on chana," said G. Chandrashekhar, policy commentator and commodity markets expert. "But countries like Australia will force it to keep the duty open, or lower." Australia is the top exporter of chana to India.

 

FALLING IMPORTS

Expectations of the policy of duty-free imports of tur and urad continuing come despite a 13% drop in imports of pulses in Jan-Oct. Experts, however, say the bulk of the fall is because of reduced imports of yellow pea. "Imports fell majorly due to a fall in yellow pea imports," said Chandrashekhar. "Yellow pea imports had been front-loaded to try to beat the deadline of duty-free imports, so now it is going down."

 

India's pulses imports were inflated largely by big shipments of yellow pea, which are used as a cheaper alternative to chana, after the government did away with the 50% duty on yellow pea in December 2023. Fearing that the Centre may bring the duty on the commodity back at some point, importers shipped nearly 3 million tonnes of yellow pea in 2024 alone, a whopping 26,672% rise on year, as per data from the commerce ministry.

 

During Jan-Oct, yellow pea imports were down 62% on year at 940,000 tonnes. Effective Nov. 1, the government has imposed 30% duty on yellow peas.

 

Imports of tur in Jan-Oct fell 22% on year to 748,000 tonnes, according to commerce ministry data. "One reason is price parity. The rupee is down, so the imported landed cost will be higher," explained Chandrashekhar. "It is now more expensive for importers to buy foreign tur and sell it here."

 

Another reason for the fall in imports is the downtrend in prices of all pulses the past few months. "Prices are down in domestic markets, that's why importers are not that much enthusiastic," said Upadhyay. Prices of most pulses are ruling below their minimum support prices owing to comfortable supply, both through imports and domestic production, according to experts.

 

Imports of chana in Jan-Oct were up 570% on year at 1.2 million tonnes while imports of masur were down 4% on year at 799,000 tonnes, according to the ministry data. In the same period, urad imports were up 36% on year at 870,000 tonnes. Experts expect imports to fall further in the first half of 2026.

 

RABI OUTPUT

The production of rabi pulses is likely to remain largely unchanged, according to analysts. "Rabi crop prospects do not inspire much confidence that there will be a substantial increase over last year despite favourable weather this year," said Chandrashekhar. He said this situation is the result of prevailing market prices.

 

"Chana (acreage) might be up a bit," said Upadhyay. "(In) some states the acreage is down, but in Rajasthan, the acreage has suddenly increased, so that will make up for it."

 

On the other hand, masur acreage is seen unchanged or even down slightly. "Masur might be the same as last year, maybe even a bit lower, as some farmers in Madhya Pradesh are unwilling to grow it," said Upadhyay. Chauhan estimates a 5% year-on-year fall in masur output. Chandrashekhar sees no major change in output of the legume, adding that "growers are not very enthusiastic about current market prices and the constant imports".

 

For rabi urad and moong, acreage is likely to remain low, experts said. The decline in urad acreage is largely due to the availability of cheaper imports, they said. The fall in moong acreage is unlikely to be a cause of worry, they said. "... I am not reading too much into it because moong is grown in the summer crop season as well," said Chandrashekhar. "More moong is being planted during the summer crop season, farmers are not that enthusiastic about rabi moong."

 

As of Dec. 19, chana acreage across the country rose nearly 6% to 9.2 million hectares while that of masur was largely unchanged at 1.6 million hectares, data from the agriculture department showed. Acreage under rabi urad fell to 313,000 hectares from 348,000 hectares a year ago. Acreage of rabi moong fell to 42,000 hectares from 43,000 hectares.

 

PRICE OUTLOOK

While some market analysts see pulses prices being stuck in a range owing to ample availability, others see them rising slightly because of a further fall in imports and no major change in domestic production.

 

"I don't see any rise in prices due to good supply and tepid demand growth," said Chandrashekhar. While wholesale prices of pulses have fallen steadily this year, retail prices have not matched the fall, he explained. "Retail prices are far above, so consumption has not grown, and (may) even (have) fallen in rural areas."

 

Upadhyay pointed out that though stocks of chana and yellow peas at ports have declined on year, this year's rabi crop is likely to make up for that. With the government's inability to procure the chana stock "entirely", arrival pressure is likely to keep prices in check, he said.

 

"For tur, there is around 600,000 tonnes of buffer with the government, and there are crop losses in Karnataka and Marathwada in Maharashtra, though the crop is good in Vidarbha (Maharashtra)," he said. The movement of the legume's prices in the medium term could be determined by when the government's procurement will begin and how it will progress, he said.

 

"There is a 60% chance prices will be on par, while there is a 40% chance they will rise, though the rise is likely to be only 5-10%," Upadhyay said.

 

In the first half of 2026, prices may improve as imports of pulses are expected to fall more, Chauhan said. "Last year, record imports were reported and now, due to good availability, imports will be less. Prices could rise but will be nowhere near the record levels seen last year," he said. 

 

Currently, prices of most pulses are ruling below their minimum support prices. The minimum support price of chana is INR 5,875 per 100 kg while that of masur is INR 7,000 per 100 kg. The minimum support price of tur is INR 8,000 per 100 kg, of urad is INR 7,800 per 100 kg, and of moong is INR 8,768 per 100 kg.

 

Friday, prices of chana in the key spot market at Indore in Madhya Pradesh were INR 5,750-INR 5,800 per 100 kg. Those of masur at the same market were INR 5,670-INR 5,700 per 100 kg. Prices of tur in Akola, Maharashtra, were at INR 6,500-INR 7,000 per 100 kg. Urad prices in Chandausi, Uttar Pradesh, were INR 6,500-INR 6,600 per 100 kg, while those of moong in Jaipur, Rajasthan, were INR 6,500-INR 6,800 per 100 kg.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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