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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended flat against the dollar on Tuesday as the impact of dollar buys by importers was offset by a broadly weak dollar, dealers said. The dollar was in demand as oil marketing companies and Indian corporates were also keen on purchasing the greenback at relatively lower levels, they said. 

 

"Importers were heavily buying today as they expect it (dollar/rupee) to go up by the end of the year," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

After falling to a low of 89.8500 a dollar, the rupee recovered all losses and closed at 89.6500 per dollar on Tuesday, unchanged from Monday's close. On Tuesday, the Indian currency moved within a 25-paise range.

 

Oil marketing companies rushed to stock up on the commodity, fearing a further increase in prices that rose following the US Coast Guard's attempt to stop an oil tanker in international waters close to Venezuela on Sunday, while Ukraine inflicted damage on two ships and docks in Russia, increasing the likelihood of oil supply disruptions, dealers said. 

 

The Indian unit was also weighed down by demand for dollars from corporates for the year-end payments and closing of books, dealers said. A sharp arbitrage between the non-deliverable forwards and the spot rupee also pressurised the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Dealers said some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters, which limited losses in the Indian unit. A weak dollar index also supported the local currency, they said. The greenback weakened across the board due to a rise in the Japanese yen and the pound sterling. The dollar also faced pressure from caution before significant data on the US economy, which were postponed due to a government shutdown in October and early November.

 

Data on US GDP for the third quarter will be released later Tuesday and is anticipated to indicate a slowdown in economic growth compared to the previous quarter. The PCE price index report – the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation – will also be released later on Tuesday and is anticipated to indicate persistent inflation.

 

At 1545 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.58, down from 98.24 Monday and from 98.72 Friday

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.6500	89.6400	89.5925	89.8500	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	279.61	294.52	296.42	272.26	273.10

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium continued its upward momentum and remained at an over three-year high for the third consecutive day Tuesday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, noting the surplus dollar liquidity in the system, dealers said. Importers also bought dollars for forward delivery, pushing premiums up further, they said. 

 

The recent volatility in the spot market has led importers to cover their bets in forwards, leading to a rise in premiums, dealers said. Indian corporates are also booking dollars for forward delivery, leading to a rise in premiums, they said. 

 

Premiums also rose owing to corporates deploying excess dollars through near-term foreign exchange swaps amid the year-end, dealers said. A rise in US Treasury yields also failed to limit the rise in premiums, dealers said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.10%, against Monday's close of 3.05%. It touched an intraday high of 3.25%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 279.61 paise, against Monday's close of 273.10 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee may open steady against the dollar, as market participants remained cautious about developments in the US interception of Venezuela's oil tankers.

 

Following the rupee's sharp appreciation last week, banks will also be cautious about the Reserve Bank of India intervention through dollar sales. Market participants will also closely monitor developments relating to the India-US trade deal. 

 

Market focus now shifts to key US data, including the PCE price index, new home sales, and weekly jobless claims, which could drive fresh volatility. Investors also look forward to the release of the preliminary US Jul-Sept GDP data, scheduled for Tuesday. The data is expected to show that the US economy grew at an annualised pace of 3.2% in the third quarter, moderately down from 3.8% in the second quarter.

 

The rupee is expected to move in the 89.00-90.00 range against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX:Yen up as Japanese officials warn against speculation

 

	AT XXXX IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3503	1.3519	1.3459	1.3459
EUR/USD	1.1791	1.1791	1.1758	1.1761
NZD/USD	0.5836	0.5837	0.5787	0.5793
AUD/USD	0.6692	0.6694	0.6656	0.6656
USD/JPY	155.9920	157.0700	155.6550	157.0360
USD/CAD	1.3706	1.3756	1.3706	1.3746
EUR/JPY	183.8820	184.7082	183.4410	184.7000
CHF/USD	1.2679	1.2695	1.2611	1.2626
EUR/CHF	0.9299	0.9324	0.9286	0.9311

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen recovered and rose almost 1% against the dollar after officials hinted at intervention in the foreign exchange market. The yen had fallen to an 11-month low Monday as the Bank of Japan failed to provide any cues on further rate hikes in its statement or the post-policy press conference on Friday. 

 

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, in her strongest warning yet, said that authorities have a free hand to take bold action against speculative moves that are not aligned with economic fundamentals. This comes after Atsushi Mimura, Japan's top foreign exchange official, warned on Monday of appropriate action against an excessive decline in the Japanese Yen.

 

The pound sterling rose to a near 12-week high against the dollar and a two-week high against the euro amid reduced liquidity during the holiday-shortened trading week. The sterling was up 0.4% against the dollar. 

 

The euro also rose to a one-week high against a weaker dollar as thinned holiday trading increased volatility and investors awaited a batch of US data. The euro was up 0.2% against the dollar. The US GDP data for the third quarter will be released later and is expected to show a slowdown in economic growth compared to the previous quarter. Markets expect the US economy to expand at an annual rate of 3.2% in Jul-Sept, following the 3.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter.

 

The PCE price index report – the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation – will also be released later on Tuesday and is anticipated to indicate persistent inflation. At 1527 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.62, down sharply from 98.24 Monday and from 98.72 Friday.

 

The Australian dollar was up 0.5% against the US dollar after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's December meeting showed that the central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone, as policymakers keep a close watch on inflation. (Kabir Sharma) 

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India Rupee: Premium remains near 3-year high on excess dollar liquidity

 

	AT 1424 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.7350	89.6400	89.5925	89.8500	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	272.61	294.52	296.42	272.26	273.10

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium continued its upward momentum and remained at an over three-year high for a third consecutive day on Tuesday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, noting the surplus dollar liquidity in the system, dealers said. Importers also bought dollars for forward delivery, pushing premiums up further, they said. 

 

"Importers are hedging and dollar is easily available, so premiums are bound to go up," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Corporates are also present and booking forwards and it will be like this till the year-end," he said. 

 

The recent volatility in the spot market has led importers to cover their bets in forwards, leading to a rise in premiums, dealers said. Indian corporates are also booking dollars for forward delivery, leading to a rise in premiums, they said. 

 

Premiums also rose owing to corporates deploying excess dollars through near-term foreign exchange swaps amid the year-end, dealers said. A rise in US Treasury yields also failed to limit the rise in premiums, dealers said. 

 

Dealers said expectations of the interest rate differential between the US and India widening, with the US Federal Reserve expected to cut rates further, has also led to the rise in premiums. 

 

At 1420 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.03%, against Monday's close of 3.05%. It touched an intraday high of 3.25%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 272.61 paise, against Monday's close of 273.10 paise. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Dn on dlr demand from oil cos, others; weak dlr index supports

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.7675	89.6400	89.5925	89.8500	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	291.61	294.52	296.42	286.55	273.10

 

MUMBAI – The rupee slipped further against the dollar Tuesday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, dealers said. "It looks like a fuel war is going to happen, so oilers are stocking up whatever they are getting," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

Oil marketing companies rushed to stock up on the commodity, fearing a further increase in prices that rose following the US Coast Guard's attempt to stop an oil tanker in international waters close to Venezuela on Sunday, while Ukraine inflicted damage on two ships and docks in Russia, increasing the likelihood of oil supply disruptions, dealers said. 

 

The Indian unit was also weighed down by demand for dollars from corporates for the year-end payments and closing of books, dealers said. A sharp arbitrage between the non-deliverable forwards and the spot rupee also pressurised the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Dealers said some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters, which limited losses in the Indian unit. A weak dollar index also supported the local currency, they said. At 1243 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.10, down from 98.24 Monday and from 98.72 Friday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.30 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 23

 

MUMBAI – At 1156 IST, the rupee was at 89.8225 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.6400 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.6500 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.10	90.20	89.50	88.90
Brokerage firm	90.30	90.00	89.30	89.00
Brokerage firm	90.10	89.90	89.10	88.90

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Rise as dollar weak; Chinese yuan at 15-mo high

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar as the greenback weakened across the board due to a rise in the Japanese yen and the pound sterling. The dollar also faced pressure from caution before significant data on the US economy, which were postponed due to a government shutdown in October and early November.

 

Data on US GDP for the third quarter will be released later and is anticipated to indicate a slowdown in economic growth compared to the previous quarter. The PCE price index report – the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation – will also be released later on Tuesday and is anticipated to indicate persistent inflation.

 

At 1020 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.74, down sharply from 98.24 Monday and from 98.72 Friday.

 

The offshore Chinese yuan was 0.2% higher against the dollar. The currency rose to a 15-month high ‍against a weakening dollar on Tuesday, even as the central bank signalled rising unease over the currency's recent rise via its official guidance fix. Prior to market open, the People's Bank of China set its yuan midpoint rate at 7.0523 a dollar, the strongest since Sept. 30, 2024.

 

The Malaysian ringgit led the gains, rising 0.3% against the dollar. The currency was neax a six-year high against the greenback. The Taiwan dollar and the Philippines peso were each up 0.1% against the dollar. 

 

Despite various efforts from authorities, the South Korean won continued its downfall against the dollar and was down 0.3%. The Bank of Korea and the National Pension Service signed a foreign exchange swap contract with a limit of $65 billion. The Bank of Korea has also exempted financial institutions from a type of 'foreign exchange insurance premium' imposed on short-term foreign currency debt raised in foreign currencies and decided to pay interest to financial institutions that deposit foreign exchange. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady as weak dlr offsets dollar demand from oil marketing cos

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.7075	89.6400	89.5925	89.7525	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	309.87	309.87	309.87	314.68	272.71

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was largely steady against the dollar on Tuesday as demand for dollars from oil marketing companies was offset by broad-based weakness in the greenback, dealers said. "Dollar is cheap but there is a lot of ask from oilers, which is keeping it in balance," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

Oil marketing companies rushed to stock up on the commodity, fearing a further increase in prices after they rose following the US Coast Guard's attempt to stop an oil tanker in international waters close to Venezuela on Sunday, while Ukraine inflicted damage on two ships and docks in Russia, increasing the likelihood of oil supply disruptions, dealers said. 

 

The dollar weakened further as the yen recovered from an 11-month low. The Japanese currency also received a boost from a generally weaker dollar, which has faced downward pressure since the Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point rate reduction at its last policy meeting. The broad-based weakness in the greenback is expected to support the rupee, dealers said. At 0935 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.07, down from 98.24 Monday and from 98.72 Friday.

 

The rupee also came under pressure due to a huge arbitrage between the spot and the non-deliverable forwards level, dealers said. At 0933 IST, the one-month dollar/rupee NDF contract traded at 90.41 rupees a dollar. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.30 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 23

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.00	89.00
State-owned bank	89.80	89.50
Private-sector bank	89.80	89.40
Brokerage firm	90.20	89.20
Brokerage firm	90.00	89.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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