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Informist, Monday, Dec. 22, 2025

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – Turmeric prices have risen by a sharp 16% over the past one month, driven by unseasonal rains, crop damage in key producing regions and the resultant tight supply ahead of the new crop harvest in January. Demand moderated somewhat at higher prices, though it did not dent prices, market participants said.

 

Turmeric futures reflected these fundamentals, with prices steadily firming in recent sessions. At 1645 IST, the most active April contract of turmeric on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, was at INR 16,230 per 100 kg, up 16% from a month ago. Meanwhile, in the key Nizamabad spot market, prices strengthened to around INR 15,500–INR 15,700 per 100 kg, up from the average price of around INR 12,900 per 100 kg for November, according to Amrutlal Kataria, a local trader.

 

Unseasonal rainfall, particularly in October, damaged turmeric crop in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu, experts said. In Andhra Pradesh, around 45,000 hectares were affected due to heavy rains and a similar damage was reported in Telangana, they said. According to the government's second advanced estimates, turmeric production in kharif season 2024-25 was seen around 1.2 million tonnes, compared with 1.04 million tonnes a year ago. In 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated around 302,000 hectares, up nearly 4% year on year, and production is projected at 1.14 million tonnes.

 

Despite expectation of an increase in acreage in 2025-26, prices are likely to continue the upward trajectory till January, due to lower yield and crop losses in several parts of the country and lower stocks with farmers and stockists at the moment, said Ajay Kedia, founder and director at Kedia Advisory and Kedia Capital Services Pvt. Ltd. Waterlogging caused by excess rains not only curtailed the yield but also led to the outbreak of disease in several areas. Trade estimates suggest production losses of 15–20%, with quality deterioration adding to concern for exporters, Kedia said.

 

Carry-over stocks with the trade are also lower than the last year, which is supporting turmeric prices. "Turmeric stocks currently are at 1.5 million bags (1 bag = 60 kg), compared to 2.0-2.2 million bags in 2024," said Hariprakash Sharma, commodity analyst at Igrain India.

 

Sharma expects prices to increase by another INR 5-INR 7 per kg by the first half of January. Prices may start reverting and may decline by INR 5-INR 10 per kg by the end of January as new crops will start coming in from Nizamabad. "However, the fall will be limited as the new crops in other places such as Erode and some parts of Maharashtra will only come in during Feb-March," he said. During Feb-Mar, futures prices are likely to be around INR 15,500-INR 15,700 per 100 kg, Sharma added.

 

Market participants believe that a clearer picture of price trajectory will emerge only after February when fresh arrivals start hitting the market. However, the delay in arrivals has tightened near-term availability, especially as carry-forward stocks are at record-low levels. Farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced their holdings significantly, lending strong underlying support to prices ahead of the new crop cycle, according to Kedia Advisory.

Demand, however, has shown signs of resistance at higher price levels, analysts said. Local consumption has softened somewhat as prices climbed, they said.

 

On the export front, demand has softened due to quality issues in Indian turmeric, which diverted buyers to Vietnam to meet their demand. Yet this year's export is seen slightly higher than last year. "In Apr-Sept 2025, turmeric exports from India were 96,680 tonnes, up from 92,942 tonnes during the corresponding period last year, indicating sustained overseas interest despite higher prices," Sharma said.

 

The global market has also been influenced by reports of below-normal quality turmeric from Indonesia this season, which is likely to increase reliance on Indian supplies as Vietnam produces limited quantity of the golden spice, analysts said. Going forward, some traders caution that the upside in turmeric prices may be capped by expectations of higher acreage this season. Favorable sowing conditions along with higher prices have encouraged farmers to expand turmeric planting by an estimated 15–20%, experts said.

 

For 2024–25 (Oct-Sept), area under turmeric was pegged at about 330,000 hectares, around 10% higher than last year. But there could be some doubts about the yield due to unseasonal rainfall. Overall, until new arrivals gather pace and crop quality becomes clearer from late February, the market is likely to remain sensitive to supply cues, keeping prices volatile but firm in the near term, according to Kedia Advisory.  End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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