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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the dollar Wednesday as public-sector banks sold the greenback aggressively on the Reserve Bank of India's behalf, dealers said. "It was a one-man show today, everyone except them (RBI)was on the back foot, specially in the first half," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.  

 

The rupee rose to a high of 90.0025 a dollar in the early hours of trade before falling slightly and ending the day's session at 90.3800 a dollar, against Tuesday's close of 91.0275 a dollar. The rupee moved in a range of over 100 paise during the day.

 

The rupee soared against the dollar in early trade as banks aggressively sold dollars on the RBI's behalf, dealers said. Following the sharp rise, stop-losses were triggered, which further supported the rupee, they said. 

 

The rupee opened at 91.0700 a dollar, a whisker away from the record low of 91.0775 a dollar, but rose sharply above 91 a dollar as banks sold dollars at multiple levels, dealers said. The Indian currency rose over 100 paise to touch the day's high of 90.0025 a dollar. Market participants speculated that the central bank sold around $3 billion-$5 billion in the spot market Wednesday.

 

Some dealers said stop-losses on long dollar bets were triggered around 90.50 a dollar, leading to the sharp surge in the rupee. However, dollar demand from oil marketing companies due to a sharp fall in oil prices and a recovery in the dollar index weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Oil marketing companies were looking to stock up on the commodity as crude oil prices were near a five-year low. The prices fell Tuesday as the US proposed to grant North Atlantic Treaty Organization-like security assurances for Kyiv and European negotiators noted advances in peace discussions Monday, raising the prospect of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Concern of oversupply also weighed on the commodity.

The dollar recovered against major currencies Wednesday after falling Tuesday due to weaker-than-expected labour market data from the US. The dollar had softened against key currencies following the release of delayed economic data that indicated job growth in the US was stronger than anticipated, suggesting that the US Federal Reserve may proceed carefully with further interest rate cuts in the short term.

 

The US labour market added 64,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, surpassing analysts' expectations of 40,000, but the data showed a significant decline from the previous month's 119,000 additions. At 1610 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.56, compared with 98.21 Tuesday and 98.25 Monday.

 

A fall in local equities also weighed on the Indian unit. The Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex ended 0.2% and 0.1% lower, respectively.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3800	91.0700	90.0025	91.0700	91.0275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	239.36	236.06	239.70	233.13	243.03

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Wednesday, tracking the sharp appreciation in the Indian unit in the spot market, dealers said.

 

The fall in premiums was despite a drop of 3 basis points in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note. Tuesday, US Treasury yields declined following an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in the US from the previous month, although experts pointed out that the information was less dependable than usual due to distortions caused by the government shutdown. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.63%, against Tuesday's close of 2.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 239.36 paise, against Tuesday's close of 243.03 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee may track the movement of the dollar index, dealers said. Foreign portfolio investors may continue to pull out funds from Indian markets as the outlook on the India-US trade deal remains clouded, they said.

 

Market participants will also monitor developments related to the India-US trade deal. Later in the week, the Bank of England is likely to cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.00 and 91.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 90.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index recovers; sterling falls on weak CPI data

 

	AT 1520 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3328	1.3428	1.3312	1.3421
EUR/USD	1.1716	1.1753	1.1703	1.1746
NZD/USD	0.5771	0.5788	0.5768	0.5781
AUD/USD	0.6617	0.6636	0.6613	0.6632
USD/JPY	155.4900	155.5950	154.5160	154.7170
USD/CAD	1.3775	1.3786	1.3753	1.3752
EUR/JPY	182.1835	182.2570	181.5781	181.7400
CHF/USD	1.2529	1.2585	1.2516	1.2573
EUR/CHF	0.9350	0.9358	0.9335	0.9340

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar recovered against major currencies on Wednesday after falling on Tuesday due to weaker than expected labour market data from the US. The dollar softened against key currencies following the release of delayed economic data that indicated job growth in the US was stronger than anticipated, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may proceed carefully with further interest rate cuts in the short term.

 

The US labour market added 64,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, surpassing analysts' expectations of 40,000, but the data showed a significant decline from the previous month's 119,000 additions. At 1514 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.56, compared with 98.21 Tuesday and 98.25 Monday.

 

The pound sterling was down 0.7% against the dollar. The UK's annual headline and core CPI rose 3.2?ch, missing estimates of 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively, reaffirming expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting this week. 

 

The euro was down 0.3% against the dollar after weaker than expected data from Germany, the largest economy of the block. The German IFO Institute's Business Climate Index surprisingly came lower at 87.6 in December from 88.0 in November, revised lower from 88.1. The data was expected to come in at 88.2. 

 

The Japanese yen was down 0.5% against the dollar ahead of the outcome of the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday, where the central bank is expected to hike interest rates.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premium down on forward dollar sales tracking rise in rupee

 

	AT 1405 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3650	91.0700	90.0025	91.0700	91.0275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	238.86	236.06	239.37	233.13	243.03

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell on Wednesday, tracking the sharp appreciation in the Indian unit in the spot market, dealers said. "Some receiving is happening after it (dollar/rupee) went down in the morning, because of which premiums have come down despite the rise in UST (US Treasury yields)" a dealer at a brokerage firm said. 

 

The local currency rose to an intraday high of 90.0025 a dollar earlier in the day as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars aggressively, dealers said. The sharp rise in the Indian unit triggered stop-losses on long dollar bets, which also supported the rupee, dealers said. 

 

The fall in premiums was despite a drop of 3 basis points in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note. On Tuesday, US Treasury yields declined following an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in the US from the previous month, although experts pointed out that the information was less dependable than usual due to distortions related to the government shutdown. 

 

At 1405 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.63%, against Tuesday's close of 2.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 238.86 paise, against Tuesday's close of 243.03 paise.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 17

 

NEW DELHI – At 1251 IST, the rupee was at 90.3300 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.0700 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.0275 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	91.50	91.00	90.00	89.70
Brokerage firm	91.20	91.00	90.20	89.50
Brokerage firm	91.50	91.20	90.00	89.80

 

(Kabir Sharma and Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Off highs as banks buy dollars for oil cos, other importers

 

	AT 1238 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3525	91.0700	90.0025	91.0700	91.0275

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was off highs against the dollar as banks bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. "The levels are very attractive and now seeing where crude is, it makes sense to stock up," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

The Indian unit rose to an intraday high of 90.0025 a dollar earlier in the day as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars aggressively, dealers said. The sharp rise in the Indian unit triggered stop losses on long dollar bets which also supported the rupee, dealers said. 

 

Market participants speculated that the central bank sold around $3 billion-$5 billion in the spot market on Wednesday.  

 

Oil marketing companies were also looking to stock up on the commodity as crude oil prices were near a five-year low. Crude oil prices fell to a five-year low on Tuesday as the US proposed to grant NATO-like security assurances for Kyiv, and European negotiators noted advancements in peace discussions on Monday, raising hopes that a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict was near. Concerns of oversupply also weighed on the commodity. 

 

A fall in local equities also weighed on the Indian unit. At 1236 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were 0.3% lower each.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 91.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg strong technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Surges on banks' dollar sales for RBI at multiple levels

 

	AT 0958 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2650	91.0700	90.0025	91.0700	91.0275

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee soared against the dollar in early trade as banks aggrressively sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Following the sharp rise, stop-losses were triggered, which further supported the rupee, they said. 

 

"Massive, massive intervention today. No one was expecting this," a dealer at a private bank said. "They want to kill all speculation in the market," he said. 

 

The rupee opened at 91.0700 a dollar, a whisker away from the record low of 91.0775 a dollar but rose sharply above 91 a dollar as banks sold dollars on behalf of the RBI at multiple levels, dealers said. The Indian currency rose over 100 paise to touch the day's high of 90.0100 a dollar. 

 

Some dealers said stop-losses on long dollar bets were triggered around 90.50 a dollar, leading to the sharp surge in the rupee. Local equities also rose, supporting the Indian unit. At 0954 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were 0.1% higher each. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 91.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg strong technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Dn despite dlr weakness; South Korean won falls 0.5%

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar despite the greenback being broadly weak due to weaker than expected labour market data from the US. At 0912 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.25, compared with 98.21 Tuesday and 98.25 Monday.

 

The South Korean won was down 0.5% against the dollar, hitting its lowest level in over eight months amid persistent capital outflows, prompting authorities to signal intervention. The finance ministry and Bank of Korea convened an emergency inter-agency meeting over the weekend to discuss measures amid recent swings, while the Financial Services Commission vowed "bold, preemptive actions" if required.

 

The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the dollar. Taiwan's life insurers have cut their currency hedging to a record low, while boosting their buffer against foreign-exchange risks to give themselves greater capacity to ride out any potential volatility, Bloomberg reported. 

 

The Thai baht was down 0.1% against the dollar. Bank of Thailand Governor Viatai Ratanakorn explained that the baht's rise in December was largely driven by weakening of the US dollar, with additional pressure coming from domestic factors such as seasonal inflows linked to tourism, exports, and investments in stocks and bonds. A significant increase in dollar sales by gold traders to buy baht has also contributed to the rise.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 17

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.20	90.70
Private-sector bank	91.30	90.60
Brokerage firm	91.40	90.60
Brokerage firm	91.17	90.67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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