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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino Southern Oscillation alert is in "inactive" status, which suggests neutral El Nino-Southern Osciallations are likely to prevail from the forecast period, the Korean climate centre said in its monthly outlook for January to June. 

The probability of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions increases in the early forecast period, with a 74.5% chance during Jan-Mar, the centre said. Neutral conditions are likely to remain dominant in the latter half of the forecast period, though chances are seen dropping to 51.2% during Apr-Jun, it said. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.46 degree Celsius in January, before increasing to up to 0.62 degree Celsius in June. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degree Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degree Celsius.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

The centre predicts slightly above normal temperatures in most parts of India, while near-normal temperatures are likely in south-eastern parts of the country during Jan-Mar. A "tendency for above normal" rainfall is also expected over the country during the same forecast period, it said.

During Apr-Jun, there is an "enhanced probability" of above-normal temperatures in India, the centre said. Normal precipitation is likely over the country during the same forecast period, it said.

According to the India Meteorological Department, maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal to below normal over most parts of the country during Dec-Feb. However, parts of northwest India, northeast India, and the Himalayan foothills may experience above-normal maximum temperatures, it said. Minimum temperatures during the season are also expected to remain normal to below normal over most parts of central India and adjoining peninsular and northwest India. The other regions may see above-normal minimum temperatures, the agency said.

Cold wave activity in the Dec–Feb period is expected to be above normal over parts of central India and some regions of northwest and northeast India, the Indian weather department said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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