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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Wednesday, giving up its early gains, as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. Dollar sales by foreign banks for foreign fund inflows into domestic corporates had earlier supported the Indian unit, they said.

 

"There have been spurts of selling (of dollars) in the last few days, but it has not sustained much because demand (for dollars) is good," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Till the time there is no trade deal, this will keep on happening." 

 

After touching a high of 89.7575 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 89.9650 on Wednesday, lower than 89.8750 Tuesday. The Indian unit traded in a range of 33 paise during the day.

 

The rupee started the day sharply lower against the dollar as the dollar index rose slightly after the stronger-than-expected US job market data indicated a resilient labour market, dealers said. US job openings, a measure of labour demand, were up 12,000 at 7.670 million by the last day of October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.150 million unfilled jobs. A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, they said.

 

However, shortly after opening, some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters, noting relatively higher dollar-rupee rates that supported the Indian unit, dealers said. Some foreign banks sold dollars to fund inflows into domestic corporates, which led the Indian unit to touch its day's high. 

 

"Foreign banks were selling (dollars) continuously in the morning," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Some stops (stop losses on long dollar bets) were broken at 89.80 due to that."

 

However, importers rushed to buy the greenback to take advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which led the rupee to erase all its gains, dealers said. Some dealers said the sharp swings in the Indian unit were due to the lacklustre volume in the currency market ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday. 

 

Further, the dollar index fell during European trade ahead of a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut by the FOMC, which also supported the local unit, according to dealers. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.14, down from 99.24 Tuesday but higher than 99.10 Monday. The index hit a low of 99.02 during the day. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. On Wednesday, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.3% lower.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.9650	90.0300	89.7575	90.0850	89.8750
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	229.85	233.13	233.72	227.13	232.06

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower amid a rise in US Treasury yields and banks' dollar sales for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, dealers said. Exporters have been selling forward dollars, noting the recent jump in forward levels, they said. The one-year forward premium has risen by over 30 basis points so far this month.

 

US Treasury yields edged higher Tuesday after labour market data showed US job openings increased modestly in October, while hiring remained subdued. Yields also gained on the growing likelihood of hawkish comments by policymakers after a likely interest rate cut by the Fed. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.18% Tuesday from 4.17% Monday. 

 

However, dealers said market volume was lower than usual as traders refrained from placing large bets ahead of the US FOMC's policy decision. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.54%, down from 2.58% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 229.85 paise, against Tuesday's close of 232.06 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index after the FOMC's policy decision, dealers said. Market participants will also be watching policymakers' voting patterns on the decision, the dot plot projections for interest rates in 2026, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments. 

 

"The rupee has been a bit disconnected from the dollar in the last few months, but everyone is looking at the FOMC this time," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If Powell's comments, rate projections are in deviation from what we are expecting, the market will be volatile tomorrow."

 

Most dealers expect the rupee to come under downward pressure and likely fall towards 90.30 if Powell's comments are hawkish and if the Fed's dot plot indicates fewer rate cuts in 2026. 

 

Market participants will also closely monitor developments related to the India-US trade deal. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said Wednesday that a delegation of US officials is in India for negotiations on the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement. Talks with the US are progressing, and the two sides are moving forward towards a bilateral trade agreement, he said, according to media reports. 

 

Banks may continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers amid the prevailing uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, keeping the depreciation bias on the rupee intact, dealers said. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 89.80 and 90.30 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.30 and long-term at 90.50.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar falls ahead of FOMC decision; euro, yen rise

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3311	1.3327	1.3297	1.3296
EUR/USD	1.1640	1.1658	1.1622	1.1625
NZD/USD	0.5785	0.5789	0.5762	0.5779
AUD/USD	0.6649	0.6654	0.6629	0.6641
USD/JPY	156.7620	156.9350	156.5630	156.8840
USD/CAD	1.3852	1.3859	1.3845	1.3843
EUR/JPY	182.4830	182.6265	182.0099	182.4256
CHF/USD	1.2424	1.2439	1.2394	1.2402
EUR/CHF	0.9368	0.9383	0.9369	0.9371

 

MUMBAI – The dollar fell against most major currencies Wednesday ahead of a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at 0030 IST Thursday. Traders are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments and the dot plot projections for interest rate in 2026.

 

Fed fund futures traders are pricing in a roughly 88% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at the upcoming decision, according to CME's FedWatch tool. At 1445 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.02, down from 99.24 Tuesday and 99.10 Monday.

 

The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar. The Bank of France said Tuesday that the country's economy is set to record modest growth in the December quarter due to robust industrial activity despite domestic political uncertainty. The euro zone's second-biggest economy is set to grow 0.2% in the December quarter, down from 0.5% in the previous quarter, the central bank forecast.

 

Both the yen and the pound sterling gained 0.2% against the US unit. Comments by the Bank of England policymakers on Tuesday showed divergence in opinion over the outlook of rates. Clare Lombardelli, deputy governor for monetary policy, said she is more worried about upside risks to inflation, adding the BoE might be nearing the end of its policy easing cycle. However, Dave Ramsden, deputy governor for markets and banking, said he saw no evidence that inflation was not going to fall as the central bank expects.

 

The Australian dollar extended its last day's gains and rose 0.2% against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia ruled out further policy easing. The New Zealand dollar was up 0.1% against the US currency. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said Wednesday there was no preset course for monetary policy and that adjustments would be made if the outlook for inflation changed. The central bank cut the official cash rate by 25 bps to 2.25% last month and signalled an end to the rate cut cycle.

 

The Canadian dollar was flat against the greenback ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision later in the day. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged after cutting the benchmark rate to a three-year low of 2.25% in October. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Premium falls on rise in US yields, exporters' fwd dollar sales

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.0725	90.0300	89.7575	90.0850	89.8750
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	228.35	233.13	233.72	227.13	232.06

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell due to a rise in US Treasury yields and banks' dollar sales for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, dealers said. Exporters have been selling forward dollars noting the recent jump in forward levels, they said. The one-year forward premium has risen over 30 basis points so far this month.

 

"We are seeing some receiving from corporates but it is not a lot," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Activity is lower than the last few days."

 

US Treasury yields edged higher Tuesday after labour market data showed US job openings increased modestly in October while hiring remained subdued. Yields also gained on the growing likelihood of hawkish comments by policymakers after a likely interest rate cut by the Fed. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.18% Tuesday from 4.17% Monday. 

 

However, dealers said volume in the market was lower than usual as traders refrained from placing large bets ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday, where it widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

 

Market participants also await policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the future interest rate path. "I am expecting forwards to fall quite a bit if Powell's comments indicate there will ne no more cuts," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Chances are he will be hawkish, but let's see."

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.52%, down from 2.58% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 228.35 paise, against Tuesday's close of 232.06 paise. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls, erases all gains as importers buy dlrs; FX inflows aid

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.9350	90.0300	89.7575	90.0300	89.8750

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased earlier gains and fell slightly against the dollar as banks persistently bought the greenback on behalf of importers to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The Indian unit had hit a high of 89.7575 a dollar earlier in the day. 

 

"The market is flowing both ways. There is activity on both sides," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The direction (for dollar-rupee) looks on the higher side for now."

 

The rupee rose earlier as foreign banks sold dollars, likely for foreign fund inflows into Indian corporates, dealers said. Some banks also sold dollars on behalf of exporters, below 90 per dollar, which supported the Indian currency, they said. 

 

However, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee rates, which helped the domestic unit erase all gains, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed down by some state-owned banks' dollar buying ahead of the daily reference rate fixing, they said. 

 

Some dealers attributed the sharp swings in the Indian unit to the subdued volume in the currency market ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Market participants also await policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the future interest rate path. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.70 and 90.10 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.20.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 10

 

MUMBAI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 89.8600 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.0300 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.8750 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.40	90.30	89.70	89.50
Brokerage firm	90.80	90.40	89.40	89.20
Brokerage firm	90.50	90.30	89.50	89.30

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Down as dollar index rises, Asian units fall; Fed decision eyed

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.9650	90.0300	89.9325	90.0300	89.8750

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Wednesday as the dollar index rose slightly after a stronger-than-expected US job market data underscored a resilient labour market, leading to expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, dealers said. A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

US job openings, a measure of labour demand, were up 12,000 at 7.670 million by the last day of October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.150 million unfilled jobs. While market participants widely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to opt for a 25-basis-point rate cut at 0030 IST, Thursday, focus has now turned to the outlook on rates for next year. Fed fund futures traders are pricing in a roughly 89% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at the upcoming decision, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

 

At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.23, down from 99.24 Tuesday but higher than 99.10 Monday. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.2% against the dollar.   

 

However, some banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the relatively higher dollar-rupee rates, which limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. "The opening was lower but we are seeing selling (of dollars) at below 90.00 levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think this should continue through the day. People are also positioning before FOMC."

 

Apart from Fed's rate decision, market participants also await policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the future interest rate path. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.20.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 10

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.10	89.60
State-owned bank	90.40	89.71
Private-sector bank	90.00	89.70
Private-sector bank	90.15	89.80
Foreign bank	90.30	89.75
Brokerage firm	90.20	89.70
Brokerage firm	90.08	89.68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr index tad up before FOMC decision

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar as the dollar index rose after data released Tuesday showed a better-than-expected job market in the US. Market participants now await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday. While markets see policy easing by the Fed at the upcoming decision as a near certainty, attention is now turning to the outlook for the year ahead.

 

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings increased marginally in October after surging in September. Job openings, a measure of labour demand, were up 12,000 at 7.670 million by the last day of October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.150 million unfilled jobs. At 0844 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.23, down from 99.24 Tuesday but higher than 99.10 Monday.

 

Fed fund futures traders are pricing in a roughly 89% chance of a 25-bps rate cut at the upcoming decision, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Investors have been scaling back on expectations of rate cuts in 2026 on persisting inflation concerns and expectations of a more robust US economy.

The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the dollar and the Taiwan dollar and Indonesian rupiah were down 0.1%. The South Korean won fell 0.2% against the dollar after data released Wednesday showed the unemployment rate rose in November to 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, from 2.6% in October. 

 

The Chinese yuan was flat against the greenback despite data on Wednesday showing consumer inflation jumped to a 21-month peak in November. The consumer price index rose 0.7% on year, matching a 0.7% expansion in a Reuters poll of economists. It had increased 0.2% in October. The Thai baht was flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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