More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

MUMBAI – In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for December released Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its estimates for global wheat and rice supply in 2025-26. The department has raised the estimate for wheat from the previous month on higher production in several major exporting countries. The increased estimate for rice supply is driven by higher beginning stocks, which has more than offset lower production.

Supplies of wheat are projected to rise by 7.5 million tonnes to nearly 1.10 billion tonnes in 2025-26 due to higher production in several major exporting countries. The highest revision of production estimates is for Canada, where output is seen up 3 million tonnes at 40 million tonnes. The production estimate for Argentina has been raised by 2 million tonnes to 24 million tonnes and that for the European Union by 1.7 million tonnes to 144 million tonnes. Production estimates for both Australia and Russia have been raised by 1 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes and 87.5 million tonnes, respectively.

The department has also increased its estimate for global wheat consumption in 2025-26 by 4.1 million tonnes to 823 million tonnes, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several of these countries. "World trade is 1.5 million tonnes higher at 218.7 million on greater exports for Australia, Canada, and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Turkey and Ukraine," the report said. The department has raised the 2025-26 global ending stocks estimate by 3.4 million tonnes to 274.9 million tonnes. 

For India, the department has raised its wheat production estimate for 2025-26 by 440,000 tonnes to 117.95 million tonnes. Its forecast for domestic consumption is unchanged at 112.51 million tonnes, and the estimate for ending stocks has been raised by 240,000 tonnes to 17.24 million tonnes.

RICE

Global rice output is estimated at 730.7 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from last month, as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are increased primarily for India, based on higher-than-expected beginning stocks reported by Food Corp. of India.

"World production is forecast at 540.4 million tons, down 0.5 million this month primarily on reductions for Madagascar and the Philippines that are only partly offset by a larger production forecast for India," the report showed. The department has raised its forecast for rice trade in 2025-26 by 300,000 tonnes to 63.2 million tonnes. 

The estimates for global rice consumption has been reduced by 450,000 tonnes to 541.9 million tonnes due to lower consumption in Madagascar. Ending stocks for the year are seen at 188.8 million tonnes, up by 2.1 million tonnes from November, primarily due to an increase of 2.5 million tonnes in India, the report said. 

For India, the department has raised its estimate by 1 million tonnes to 152 million tonnes. Consumption is seen unchanged at 127 million tonnes. It expects rice exports from the country at 25 million tonnes, unchanged from November. Ending stocks in 2025-26 have been projected higher at 48 million tonnes.  End

Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal

Edited by Avishek Dutta

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.