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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose against the dollar to close above the 90/$ mark on Tuesday as banks persistently sold the greenback for exporters and foreign fund inflows into Indian companies, dealers said. However, some banks bought the greenback for importers, citing lucrative levels which limited gains for the rupee, they said. 

 

"It was a usual tug-of-war day between importers and exporters. There was definitely more selling (of dollars) because there were some inflows through foreign banks," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

After hitting a high of 89.8375 a dollar, the rupee ended at 89.8750 Tuesday, compared with 90.0700 on Monday. The Indian unit traded in a wide range of 30 paise during the day. 

 

The rupee came under pressure earlier in the day due to banks' dollar purchases for importers, dealers said. However, once exporters stepped in, the Indian unit began to appreciate against the greenback. Some dealers speculated that banks also sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, to curb excess volatility in the Indian unit. 

 

Dealers now look forward to the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, investors will focus on how divided policymakers are over the decision and on Chair Jerome Powell's comments about the path ahead, with some expecting the Fed to indicate fewer rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient US economy. 

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-bps rate cut on Wednesday, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. At 1602 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.01, slightly down from 99.10 on Monday but up from 98.99 on Friday. 

 

"... The RBI policy did not offer any direct support, with no visible intervention in the market. With the Fed's final policy of the year due this week, volatility is expected to stay high. The rupee is likely to trade in the 89.75–90.25 range," LKP Securities said in a note. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. The Sensex and Nifty 50 ended down 0.5?ch.

 

	AT 1605 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.8750	90.1275	89.8375	90.1425	90.0700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	232.06	232.56	233.06	229.56	235.13

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Tuesday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the recent jump in levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has gained almost 40 basis points so far this month.

 

A rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on the forward premiums, some dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose as investors waited anxiously for the Federal Reserve's policy decision Wednesday, where it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Yields also gained after a massive earthquake struck off the coast of Japan. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.17% Monday from 4.14% Friday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.58%, down from 2.61% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 232.06 paise, against Monday's close of 235.13 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee may remain under downward pressure as importers continue to buy dollars, fearing a further fall amid looming uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers said. Dealers will also look forward to the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. 

 

However, dealers expect dollar sales on behalf of exporters, noting the recent weakness in the rupee, which will provide a cushion to the local unit. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 89.80 to 90.30 against the dollar Wednesday. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.80 a dollar.

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India Rupee - World FX: Australia dlr up as central bk rules out more easing

 

	AT 1425 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3347	1.3347	1.3317	1.3320
EUR/USD	1.1645	1.1651	1.1634	1.1637
NZD/USD	0.5781	0.5793	0.5768	0.5774
AUD/USD	0.6636	0.6648	0.6609	0.6624
USD/JPY	156.3340	156.4320	155.7450	155.9160
USD/CAD	1.3856	1.3858	1.3845	1.3856
EUR/JPY	182.0430	182.1500	181.3400	181.4300
CHF/USD	1.2412	1.2419	1.2386	1.2393
EUR/CHF	0.9380	0.9394	0.9379	0.9388

 

MUMBAI – The Australian dollar gained 0.2% against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady at 3.6% Tuesday but ruled out further policy easing, saying a rise in inflation could be persistent. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said at the post-meeting press briefing that more rate cuts were not needed. "What I would say at this point is what we know at the moment, I don't think there are interest rate cuts in the horizon for the foreseeable future," Bullock said.

 

The yen fell 0.3% against the greenback as risk appetite among investors took a beating after a massive 7.5-magnitude earthquake struck Japan's northeast overnight. The earthquake resulted in authorities ordering about 90,000 residents to evacuate and tsunami warnings that hours later were downgraded to advisories, reports said.

 

Meanwhile, noting that the recent rate rises have been "somewhat rapid," Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Tuesday the central bank plans to increase government bond buying if long-term interest rates rise sharply. "Recently, long-term rates have been rising at a somewhat rapid pace," Ueda said as the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield hit 18-year highs this week.

 

The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar after data released Tuesday showed German exports rose slightly in October, contrary to expectations of a decline. Exports from Europe's largest economy rose 0.1% in October. A Reuters poll had forecast a 0.5?crease. The pound sterling rose 0.1%. 

 

The dollar index remained steady ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision Wednesday, when it is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-bps rate cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool. At 1425 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.06, down from 99.10 Monday but up from 98.99 Friday.

 

Market participants now await the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data, due Tuesday, for a further glimpse into the world's largest economy's labour market.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premium falls as exporters sell fwd dollars after levels spike

 

	AT 1255 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.9500	90.1275	89.9175	90.1425	90.0700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	231.06	231.68	232.56	229.56	235.13

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Tuesday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the recent jump in levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has gained almost 40 basis points so far this month. "Exporter activity has picked up after the kind of levels that were seen," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Spot (dollar-rupee) has also moved lower." 

 

On Monday, the one-year forward premium settled at a one-year high of 2.61% as the Reserve Bank of India likely delivered dollars against some of its outstanding forward sales, dealers said. Moreover, some banks purchased dollars for forward delivery, to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between the onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, which also boosted the premiums, they said. 

 

A rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on the forwards premiums, some dealers said. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose as investors waited anxiously for the Federal Reserve's policy decision Wednesday, where it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Yields also gained after a massive earthquake struck off the coast of Japan. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.17% Monday from 4.14% Friday. 

 

Market participants will focus on how divided policymakers are over the decision and Chair Jerome Powell's comments about the path ahead, with some expecting the Fed to indicate fewer rate cuts next year on lingering inflation worries and expectations of a more resilient US economy. 

 

At 1255 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.57%, down from 2.61% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 231.06 paise, against Monday's close of 235.13 paise.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Rises above 90/$ on banks' dollar sales for exporters, FX inflows

 

	AT 1255 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.9525	90.1275	89.9175	90.1425	90.0700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	231.06	232.56	232.56	229.56	235.13

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose above the 90/$ level and remained higher against the dollar as banks sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows into Indian companies and for exporters, dealers said. "Flows are good today (Tuesday), from the equity side as well as exporters," a dealer at a private bank said. "It will play around the 90 (a dollar) mark until the next major cue," he said.  

 

The rupee came under pressure earlier in the day from dollar purchases by banks for importers, dealers said. However, once exporters stepped in, the Indian unit started rising against the greenback. Some dealers speculated that banks also sold dollars likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, to curb excess volatility in the Indian unit. 

 

Dealers now look forward to the outcome of the Federal Open Market Commitee's meeting on Wednesday. While the central bank is widely expected to slash rates by 25 basis points, investors will focus on how divided policymakers are over the decision and on Chair Jerome Powell's comments about the path ahead, with some expecting the Fed to indicate fewer rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient US economy. 

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-bps rate cut on Wednesday, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. At 1254 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.09, slightly down from 99.10 Monday but up from 98.99 Friday. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 1254 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.3?ch.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar and support at 90.30.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 9

 

MUMBAI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 89.9550 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.1275 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.0700 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.60	90.50	89.88	89.70
Private-sector bank	90.40	90.30	89.90	89.60
Brokerage firm	90.50	90.30	89.50	89.20
Brokerage firm	90.40	90.20	89.80	89.50

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Steady; erases gains as importers buy dollars, local shrs fall

 

	AT 0955 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.0600	90.1275	89.9850	90.1425	90.0700

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased early gains and was steady against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, which offset the impact of sales of greenback for foreign fund inflows into domestic companies and exporters, dealers said. The Indian unit touched a high of 89.9850 a dollar shortly after opening. 

 

Dealers said banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers above 90-per-dollar, which weighed on the Indian unit. The Indian unit rose earlier as banks sold dollars, likely for foreign fund inflows into domestic companies, dealers said.

 

Some state-owned banks also sold dollars, likely for exporters, on expectation of a rise in the rupee after the US Federal Reserve policy decision Wednesday, dealers said. "Everybody is positioning before FOMC. People are expecting levels (dollar-rupee) to fall after that, which is why they are booking profits now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The US Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to slash rates by 25 basis points Wednesday. Investors will focus on how divided policymakers are over the decision and Chair Jerome Powell's comments about the path ahead, with some expecting the Fed to indicate fewer rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient US economy. 

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. At 0955 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.04, down from 99.10 Monday but up from 98.99 Friday. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 0955 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

 

"With the dollar turning softer--driven by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut--and the RBI actively managing liquidity and hope of a trade deal, the rupee now looks set to settle into a period of consolidation within a broad 89.20–90.30 range," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar and support at 90.30.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed ahead of FOMC decision; Philippines peso falls

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar Tuesday as market participants turned attention to the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Traders are watchful of policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the future interest rate path.

 

Investors are now bracing for fewer Fed interest rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient US economy. The dollar index inched slightly higher Monday as investors grew anxious about the pace of easing by the US Fed after the upcoming decision, which weighed on the Asian units. 

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. At 0830 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.05, down from 99.10 Monday but up from 98.99 Friday. The Philippines peso was down 0.4% against the dollar while the Malaysian ringgit was down 0.2%. The South Korean won was down 0.1%. 

 

The Chinese yuan was flat against the greenback. The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, Monday said China will keep expanding domestic demand and support the broader economy with more proactive policies in 2026, media reports said. Further, data released Monday showed China's trade surplus topped $1 trillion for the first time last time. Exports overall grew 5.9% year-on-year in November, a reversal from October's 1.1% contraction, and beating a 3.8% forecast in a Reuters poll. Imports were up 1.9%, compared with a 1.0% rise in October. China's trade surplus was $111.68 billion in November, the highest since June and up from $90.07 billion in the previous month. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah and the Taiwan dollar were up 0.1% while the Thai baht was flat against the dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.30	89.80
Private-sector bank	90.30	90.00
Foreign bank	90.35	89.85
Brokerage firm	90.40	89.90
Brokerage firm	90.25	90.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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