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Informist, Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose above the 90/$1 mark Thursday, snapping a six-day fall, as foreign banks consistently sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian corporations, dealers said. The Indian currency was also supported by banks' dollar sales for exporters, they said. "Inflows were the major player today (Thursday), foreign banks sold a lot," a dealer at a state-owned bank.

 

The rupee closed at 89.9750 a dollar, sharply up from 90.1900 Wednesday. The currency fell to a record low of 90.4225 a dollar during the day before recovering and rising to an intraday high of 89.8675. 

 

Dealers said the foreign fund inflows were likely on account of the joint venture announced by JSW Steel and Japan-based JFE Steel Corp. for the steel business of the former's subsidiary Bhushan Power and Steel Ltd. The steelmaker Wednesday announced the signing of an agreement with JFE Steel Corp., under which the steel business of Bhushan Power and Steel will be transferred to a 50:50 joint venture with the Japanese company by way of a slump sale for a cash consideration of INR 244.8 billion. The Japanese company will invest INR 157.5 billion in two tranches to acquire 50% stake in the joint venture, JSW Steel said in an exchange filing. 

 

The rupee struggled in the first hour of trade, falling to a record low almost instantly, but as the session progressed, banks started selling dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, though not aggressively, dealers said. Exporters also sold dollars, taking advantage of the lucrative dollar/rupee level, which also supported the rupee, dealers said.

 

"Exporters started coming in the market once the rupee consolidated around 90.40-90.30 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "After a point, the market was moving purely on profit-booking." Noting the appreciation in the rupee, some traders unwound their long dollar positions, which also supported the Indian currency, dealers said.

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian currency, dealers said. The benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex each ended 0.2% higher after having fallen in the four previous sessions.

 

The dollar index remained broadly weak, which also supported the rupee, they said. At 1631 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.88, up from 98.87 Wednesday but down from 99.32 Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, banks continously bought dollars on behalf of importers above the 90-per-dollar mark, which limited gains for the Indian currency, dealers said. "Good volatility was observed as RBI protected a particular level (90.4225), but overall there was good buying (of dollars) at the higher end of rupee at 89.89," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said in a note. "Trend continues for weakness of the rupee while RBI keeps a tab on the rupee depreciation."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.9750	90.4100	89.8675	90.4225	90.1900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	226.53	239.42	239.42	225.40	224.68

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended off the day's high as some banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, to take advantage of the recent jump in levels, dealers said. So far this week, the one-year dollar-rupee forward premium has risen almost 30 basis points. 

 

The one-year forward premium touched a high of 2.65?rlier in the day, its highest level since Jan. 10, as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit, dealers said. So far in the week, the rupee has depreciated 0.6% against the dollar. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.52%, up from 2.48% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 226.53 paise, against Wednesday's close of 224.68 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee may open steady against the dollar as market participants await the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision at 1000 IST, dealers said. A surprisingly sharp rise in GDP growth in the September quarter and a slump in the rupee has led to a divergence among participants about the interest rate decision, with some still expecting a rate cut.

 

"The rupee may weaken further towards 90.50 if RBI cuts rate," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If equities react very favourably, we may see some support for rupee." Market participants will watch out for RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's commentary on the rupee and liquidity management. 

 

The Indian currency may also take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the US weekly unemployment initial claims data, dealers said. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene around 90.50 a dollar, to support the rupee. Banks may continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, which may keep the downward pressure on the local unit intact, dealers said. 

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.80 to 90.40 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.80 per dollar and support at 90.50.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index hits five-week low on Fed rate cut bets

 

	AT 1439 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3342	1.3359	1.3328	1.3352
EUR/USD	1.1676	1.1683	1.1653	1.1670
NZD/USD	0.5776	0.5779	0.5762	0.5771
AUD/USD	0.6614	0.6619	0.6599	0.6601
USD/JPY	154.9420	155.5400	154.7760	155.2390
USD/CAD	1.3964	1.3971	1.3950	1.3949
EUR/JPY	180.9150	181.3500	180.7100	181.1450
CHF/USD	1.2498	1.2510	1.2472	1.2505
EUR/CHF	0.9342	0.9348	0.9330	0.9330

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index hit an over five-week low Thursday as weak economic data reinforced expectation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week. Data Wednesday showed that US private employment decreased by 32,000 jobs last month compared with the estimate of a growth of 10,000 jobs, according to economists polled by Reuters.

 

Traders are pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-bps interest rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Market participants are also weighing the prospect of White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett taking over as Fed Chair after Jerome Powell's term ends in May. Hassett is seen pushing for more rate cuts. At 1439 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.82, down from 98.87 Wednesday, but 99.32 Tuesday.

 

The yen rose 0.2% against the dollar after Reuters Thursday reported, citing sources, that the Bank of Japan is likely to hike interest rates in December with the government expected to tolerate such a decision. The Bank of Japan is likely to hike its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.50%, the report said, citing three government sources familiar with the deliberations. 

 

The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar after data Wednesday showed business activity in the euro zone expanded at its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years in November. HCOB's Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.8 in November from 52.5 in October, marking its sixth consecutive monthly increase.

 

Meanwhile, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said Wednesday that Euro zone inflation has delivered some "upside surprises" recently, raising some questions about the central bank's expectations for a dip early next year. Lane said there was still a risk that inflation might surpass the central bank's expectations.

 

The Australian dollar gained 0.2% against the greenback while the pound sterling and the New Zealand dollar were flat.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Rises on banks' dollar sales on behalf of exporters, RBI

 

	AT 1248 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.0925	90.4100	90.0900	90.4225	90.1900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar as banks stepped in to sell the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and exporters, dealers said. "They are present in the market but are passive," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "However, it is enough to give hints to the market about the levels they should expect," he said.    

 

Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars at multiple levels to limit losses in the rupee but not aggressively. However, this prompted exporters to sell the greenback at these levels, as they expected the rupee to not depreciate further, dealers said. Dollar sales by the RBI and exporters lifted the rupee to day's high of 90.1000 a dollar.  

 

The Indian unit fell to a record low of 90.4225 a dollar in the first few minutes of trade on Thursday as importers rushed to buy dollars. Dealers said the rupee was under pressure from non-deliverables forwards as well, where it hit a record low overnight. 

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1244 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.1?ch. Despite its recovery, the dollar index remained broadly weak, which also supported the rupee, they said. At 1248 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.96, up from 98.87 Wednesday, but down from 99.32 Tuesday.

 

Market participants now await the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision on Friday. A surprisingly sharp rise in GDP growth in the September quarter and a slump in the rupee have led to divergent views among participants about the interest rate decision, with some still expecting a rate cut.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium jumps to 11-mo high as importers hedge persistently

Informist, Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

 

	AT 1155 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2250	90.4100	90.2100	90.4225	90.1900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	233.16	239.42	239.42	232.03	224.68

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged to a near 11-month high Thursday as sharp weakness in the rupee prompted banks to persistently buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. The Indian currency continued its downward trend and hit a record low of 90.4225 a dollar Thursday. The rupee fell past the psychologically-crucial 90.00 mark for the first time on Wednesday.  

 

Importers bought forward dollars, fearing a further fall in the rupee going ahead, dealers said. "With the kind of fall we've seen in rupee recently, there's panic in the market as everybody is just trying to make the most the of the current levels," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Speculators are the major drivers of the levels right now." The rupee has depreciated over 1% so far this week.

 

Dealers said the sudden sharp decline in the rupee has led to a surge in speculative positioning against the Indian unit, which has also led to a jump in forward premiums. One of the major reasons for the buildup of speculative bets is the lack of support by the Reserve Bank of India to curb the sharp decline in the rupee, they said.  

 

Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters to take advantage of the jump in levels, which limited gains for the forward premiums, dealers said. So far this week, the one-year dollar-rupee forward premium has risen almost 40 basis points. 

 

Market participants now await the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee's decision, due Friday. A surprisingly sharp rise in GDP growth in the September quarter and a slump in the rupee has led to a divergence among participants about the interest rate decision, with some still expecting a rate cut.

 

At 1155 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.58%, up from 2.48% Wednesday. The premium touched a high of 2.65?rlier in the day, its highest level since Jan. 10. On an absolute basis, the premium was 233.16 paise, against Wednesday's close of 224.68 paise.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Recovers from record low on banks' dlr sales for exporters

 

	AT 1146 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2800	90.4100	90.2100	90.4225	90.1900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee recovered from its record low against the dollar as banks sold the greenback on behalf of exporters looking to take advantage of the lucrative dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. "Exporters are seeing a good support at 50 so these levels are very good for them, but as it moves down (towards 90.00), you can see importers coming in to stock up as well," a dealer at a private bank said.   

 

The Indian unit fell to a record low of 90.4225 a dollar in the first few minutes of trade as importers rushed to buy dollars, dealers said. Dealers said the rupee was under pressure from non-deliverables forwards as well, where it hit a record low overnight. However, the rupee recovered to touch the intra-day high of 90.2100 a dollar as exporters stepped in to sell dollars citing attractive levels. 

 

Some market participants speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars, albeit not aggressively, to limit losses in the Indian currency. The absence of dollar purchases by foreign portfolio investors for outflows from domestic equities also supported the rupee, dealers said.   

 

A rise in domestic equities supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1143 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.3?ch. Despite its recovery, the dollar index remained broadly weak, which also supported the rupee, they said. At 1148 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.98, up from 98.87 Wednesday, but down from 99.32 Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.20 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.50 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 4

 

MUMBAI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 90.2325 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.4100 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.1900 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	90.50	90.45	90.00	89.80
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.50	90.10	89.90
Brokerage firm	90.70	90.50	89.80	89.50
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.50	89.50	89.20

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most dn as dlr recovers; South Korean won falls 0.4%

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar as the greenback surged in early trade Thursday after falling to a near seven-week low against the euro on Wednesday. The european currency surged after data showed expansion in business activity in the eurozone. In November, business activity in the eurozone grew at its quickest pace in two and a half years, with a strong services sector compensating for weaknesses in manufacturing, a survey showed on Wednesday.

 

In the US, the ADP employment report showed private payrolls fell unexpectedly in November. Private-sector employment fell by 32,000 positions last month. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted a rise of 10,000 jobs. At 0942 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.98, up from 98.87 Wednesday, but down from 99.32 Tuesday.

 

The South Korean won was down 0.4% against the dollar Thursday after South Korea increased its headroom for foreign exchange bond issuance as Seoul prepares to fund a $350-billion investment pledge to the US under its trade deal with Washington. The limit on foreign currency bond issuance was raised to a record $5 billion for next year under an annual budget approved by parliament late on Tuesday, from an earlier proposal of $1.4 billion, according to the finance ministry, the Financial Times reported. 

 

The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the dollar. President Lai Ching-te said he wants his nation and the US to strengthen their economic partnership, adding he supports President Trump's goal to make the US the global centre for artificial intelligence. "We hope Taiwan-US tariff negotiations will not only help reduce the US trade deficit but also deepen bilateral economic cooperation," Lai said at a summit hosted by The New York Times.

The Singapore dollar and the Indonesian rupiah were down 0.2?ch against the dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Hits record low as banks buy dlrs for importers, FPI outflows

 

	AT 0924 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3900	90.4100	90.3700	90.4225	90.1900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee hit a record low against the dollar as banks persistently bought the greenback on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. "It's the same story as yesterday (Wednesday) — importers are panic buying and FPIs are exiting equities," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The rupee opened at 90.4100 a dollar and fell to a lifetime low of 90.4225 almost instantly. Delay in a trade deal between India and the US is one of the primary reasons for the sharp weakness in the Indian unit, according to dealers. A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Both benchmark indices--the Sensex and the Nifty 50--opened 0.1% lower on Thursday.  

 

Dealers said the rupee was under pressure from non-deliverables forwards as well, where it hit a record low overnight. Meanwhile, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars, albeit not aggressively, to limit losses in the Indian currency. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.20 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.50 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 4

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.50	90.00
Private-sector bank	90.55	90.20
Brokerage firm	90.60	89.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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