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Informist, Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

MUMBAI- The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has estimated India's cotton production in marketing year 2025-26 (Aug-Jul) at 23.8 million bales (each of 480 pounds), down 3% from its earlier estimate, with the fall largely due to heavy rains and floods in several parts of the country.

"Cotton, which is highly sensitive to waterlogging, experienced extensive damage during the heavy rains of August and September, including root rot, flower and square shedding, and stunted vegetative growth. The timing of these excessive rains, directly overlapping with the critical flowering and boll-development stages, intensified their impact and reduced yield potential, it said in a post.

It has forecast an average yield of 463 kg per hectare, also 3% lower than its earlier projection.

The main cotton growing states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana were affected by widespread flooding and waterlogging during the late-maturity period. The prolonged moisture stress resulted in boll drop, flower shedding, and heightened pest and disease pressure, further reducing yield and raising concerns about fiber quality compared to last year, it said. These localised weather shocks effectively offset the benefits of favourable early monsoon, the post observed.

Although commercial cultivation of Herbicide-Tolerant Bt (HTBT) cotton is currently unapproved in India, the post noted that it is widely grown due to perceived benefits in weed management and lower production costs.

The unapproved cultivation of HTBT cotton in India is driven by farmers seeking to cut high manual weeding costs (saving INR 7,000 to INR 8,000 per acre) and address the pink bollworm resistance to current approved Bt strains, it said.

"This illegal black market poses several major risks: Economically, it harms the legitimate seed industry and exposes farmers to spurious, poor-quality seeds with no legal recourse, often leading to significant yield losses, especially under adverse weather. Environmentally, unapproved use leads to the unchecked spread of its herbicide-resistant gene, creating 'superweeds', and promotes the indiscriminate use of glyphosate, raising concerns for soil health and ecosystems".

Interestingly, the post said the estimated area under unapproved HTBT cotton cultivation in India is substantial and has been increasing significantly. "Trade estimates that the illegal variety is estimated to cover 15 to 25 percent of the total cotton acreage in India. Given that the total cotton area in India generally ranges from 11-13 million hectares, a 15 percent to 25 percent share means that anywhere from 1.7 million to 3.3 million hectares are potentially under unapproved cultivation, highlighting the significant scale of the black market and farmer demand for the technology."

However, the regulatory bottleneck appears to be easing, with key ministries and expert bodies showing intent to move towards legalisation, primarily to support farmer economics and national cotton output, the post said.   End

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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