More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended below the 90-per-dollar mark on Wednesday as banks persistently bought dollars for importers and foreign institutional investors, dealers said. "FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) have been relentless, the ask for dollars from them is creating panic amongst importers as well," a dealer at a private bank said. This is the third consecutive day the rupee has ended at a record closing low.

 

The rupee closed at 90.1900 a dollar against 89.8700 on Tuesday. The currency fell to a record low of 90.2900 a dollar during the day.

 

The Reserve Bank of India did intervene by way of dollar sales in the market but not aggressively, dealers said. "There were traces of them (RBI), but it was not the usual clear hint," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

The Indian unit fell below the psychologically-crucial 90 a dollar level in the first hour of trade which caused panic among market participants, who were expecting the central bank to intervene and prevent further depreciation. The rupee opened at 89.9700 a dollar, but fell past 90.00 a dollar to hit a lifetime low shortly afterwards, as dollar purchases by importers led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets around the 90.00 mark.

 

In the absence of dollar sales by the RBI, the rupee continued to fall. Foreign portfolio investors bought dollars as they sold Indian equities amid uncertainty over the India-US tariff deal, dealers said. The Sensex recovered most losses and ended largely unchanged, while the Nifty 50 was down 0.2%.

 

Chief Economic Adviser to the Government V. Anantha Nageswaran said he is not worried about the rupee's fall against the dollar and that the Indian currency is expected to "come back" next year. "I am not losing sleep over it," he told reporters on the sidelines of an event in New Delhi. Nageswaran said the rupee's fall is not seen impacting exports and inflation. If there is a time for the rupee to fall, now is probably the right one, he said.

 

The rupee fell despite a weak dollar index. The dollar index fell for the ninth consecutive session on Wednesday due to increased expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week, dealers said. Fed fund futures traders are currently pricing in an 87.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the Fed next week, as per the CME FedWatch tool. At 1623 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.00, down from 99.32 Tuesday and 99.41 Monday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1900	89.9700	89.9650	90.2900	89.8700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	224.68	214.13	226.68	213.56	208.19

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged to a near 11-month high as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared the Indian currency could depreciate further after it breached the psychologically-crucial mark of 90 a dollar, dealers said.

 

The lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the RBI to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert drain on the rupee liquidity also lifted forward premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.47%, up from 2.31% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 224.68 paise, against Tuesday's close of 208.19 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, dealers will closely monitor Indian equities and foreign investor flows. The rupee will also take cues from movement of the dollar index and other Asian currencies. Dollar demand from importers will remain key, dealers said.

 

Market participants will also keep an eye on the India-US trade deal talks, dealers said. In August, the US imposed a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods, half of which was a penalty for purchasing crude oil from Russia.

 

Market participants will now wait for the decision of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting Friday. Dealers are divided over whether the RBI will cut interest rates at its last policy meeting of the year after the strong GDP growth for Jul-Sept and as inflation is well below the central bank's tolerance range of 2-6%.

 

Thursday, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 90.00 to 90.30 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 90.00 per dollar and support at 90.30.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr falls for 9th day in a row; US FOMC meet eyed

 

	AT 1506 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3280	1.3281	1.3203	1.3213
EUR/USD	1.1644	1.1653	1.1621	1.1625
NZD/USD	0.5745	0.5755	0.5731	0.5737
AUD/USD	0.6585	0.6586	0.6553	0.6563
USD/JPY	155.6020	155.9010	155.5150	155.8650
USD/CAD	1.3958	1.3975	1.3959	1.3967
EUR/JPY	181.2140	181.3331	180.8700	181.1620
CHF/USD	1.2473	1.2489	1.2440	1.2453
EUR/CHF	0.9336	0.9344	0.9330	0.9333

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell for the ninth consecutive trading session on Wednesday as market participants widely expect the US Federal Open Market Committee to lower interest rates at its meeting next week. At 1502 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.16, down from 99.32 Tuesday and 99.41 Monday.

 

Statements by various Federal Reserve officials over the past few days, along with disappointing economic data, have raised expectations of a rate cut at the US central bank's meeting this month. Fed funds futures reflect an 87% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction in rates at the Fed's upcoming meeting, up from a 63% probability a month earlier, as per the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Markets are also for any news on who could potentially replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends next year. US President Donald Trump Tuesday said he plans to reveal his pick as the head of Fed early next year. Trump said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been in charge of the search, is not interested in the position.

 

The New Zealand dollar was up 0.1% against the US dollar as China's services purchasing managers' index came in higher than expected. China's Services PMI for November was 52.1, lower than 52.6 the previous month but higher than market expectations of 52.0. The upbeat economic data supports the New Zealand dollar, as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. 

 

The pound sterling was up 0.2% against the greenback as the UK government revised expectations of growth upwards. The Office for Budget Responsibility raised the economic growth projection for 2025 to 1.5% from 1.0?rlier.

 

Later in the day, European Central Bank President Cristine Lagarde will speak at the European Parliament, where she is expected to reiterate that the current monetary policy is appropriate and that interest rates will remain at current levels for some time. In the US, November's ADP Employment Change report is expected to show a net gain of 5,000 jobs, below the 42,000 jobs seen in October, according to a poll by FXStreet. The US ISM Services PMI is expected to show that activity slowed down to 52.1 in November, from 52.4 in October. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Premium at 11-month high; importers buy fwd dlrs on rupee fall

 

	AT 1356 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1625	89.9700	89.9650	90.2900	89.8700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	224.18	214.13	226.68	213.56	208.19

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged to a near 11-month high Wednesday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared the Indian currency could depreciate further after it breached the psychologically-crucial mark of 90 a dollar, dealers said.

 

"No one is sure of where the (rupee) fall is going to stop, so importers are booking dollars at whatever level they are getting," said a dealer at a brokerage firm. Lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the Reserve Bank of India to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and to avert pushing out rupee liquidity also lifted forward premiums, dealers said.

 

In the spot market, the Indian unit fell to a record low of 90.29 a dollar as importers stocked up on the greenback and as foreign portfolio investors exited Indian equities. At 1354 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.4?ch.

 

Market participants will now wait for the decision of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting Friday. Dealers are divided over whether the RBI will cut interest rates at its last policy meeting of the year after the strong GDP growth for Jul-Sept and as inflation is well below the central bank's tolerance range of 2-6%.

 

At 1355 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.47%, up from 2.32% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 224.17 paise, against Tuesday's close of 208.19 paise. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Hits record low of 90.29/$ on dlr demand from importers, FPIs

 

	AT 1318 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2725	89.9700	89.9650	90.2900	89.8700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	226.18	214.13	226.68	213.56	208.19

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell further and touched a record low of 90.2900 a dollar on persistent dollar demand from importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. The absence of dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India also weighed on the local currency, they said. 

 

"We were waiting for them (RBI) to intervene, but they were not there today so far," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Now there is some selling but still people are cautious and will start stocking up on any dip," he said. 

 

The Indian unit fell past the psychologically crucial 90 a dollar level in the first hour of trade which caused panic among market participants who were expecting the central bank to intervene and prevent further depreciation. In the absence of dollar sales by the RBI, the rupee continued to fall. Dealers also said the next support level cannot be estimated with the dollar-rupee surging at this pace. 

 

Foreign portfolio investors bought dollars as they sold Indian equities amid uncertainty over the India-US tariff deal, dealers said. At 1318 IST, the Sensex was down 0.4%, while the Nifty 50 was down 0.3%. A section of the market speculated that the Reserve Bank was present in the market but was not aggressive in its dollar sales. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 3

 

NEW DELHI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 90.1600 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.9700 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.8700 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	90.50	90.20	89.80	89.50
Private-sector bank	90.60	90.30	89.90	89.80
Brokerage firm	90.50	90.20	89.50	89.20
Brokerage firm	90.80	90.50	89.80	89.50

 

(Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Slips past 90/$1, hits record low as importers buy dollars

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.0400	89.9700	89.9700	90.1400	89.8700

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell past the psychologically-important 90-per-dollar mark and hit a record low of 90.1400 a dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said.

 

"Even though everyone was talking about 90 (a dollar), people were not expecting it to happen so easily," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "These are unchartered territories, nobody can tell where we go from here."

 

The rupee opened at 89.9700 a dollar, but fell past 90.00 a dollar to hit a lifetime low shortly afterwards, as dollar purchases by importers led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets around the 90.00 mark. Delay in a trade deal between India and the US is the primary reason for the sharp weakness in the Indian unit, according to dealers. 

 

Meanwhile, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars, albeit not aggressively, to limit losses in the Indian currency, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.20 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as US econ data awaited; South Korean won down

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar Wednesday as traders await the last few economic data points before the US Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of the year, due Dec. 9-10, for cues on the health of the world's largest economy and the possibility of future rate cuts beyond next week.

 

Expectations of a rate cut at the US central bank's December meeting have soared following recent comments by several Fed officials and weak economic data. Fed funds futures are pricing an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's next meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The economic data lineup includes the US ADP employment survey for November, due on Wednesday, weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and the delayed September personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Friday.

 

The dollar index remained weak ahead of an expected rate cut by the Fed next week, supporting the Asian units. At 0845 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.22, down from 99.32 Tuesday and 99.41 Monday. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.1% against the dollar while the Thai baht rose 0.4%.

 

The Chinese yuan rose 0.1% against the US unit even after data released Wednesday showed China's services activity expanded at its slowest pace in five months in November. The RatingDog China general services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.1 from 52.6 in October, marking the weakest expansion since June. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.1% against the greenback even after revised central bank data Wednesday showed the economy expanded by 1.3% in the September quarter, faster than the bank's earlier estimate of 1.2%. It was the fastest quarterly growth since the fourth quarter of 2021, when the economy grew by 1.6%.

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.3% against the dollar while the Indonesian rupiah was steady. The disaster agency said the number of people killed by floods and landslides on Indonesia's Sumatra island rose to 708 Tuesday. Nearly 900 people have been killed in floods and landslides that have caused disruption in Indonesia, following months of adverse weather in Southeast Asia, including successive typhoons that hit the Philippines and Vietnam, reports said. The Taiwan dollar was also flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 3

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.20	89.50
Private-sector bank	90.25	89.70
Foreign bank	90.00	89.60
Brokerage firm	90.05	89.75
Brokerage firm	90.20	89.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.