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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI - Crude oil is expected to trade with an upward bias in December, recovering from a four-month low hit in October. The expected rise is due to multiple factors such as hurdles to the US-proposed Russia-Ukraine peace plan, supply-side issues during the winter, and US threats of military action against Venezuela, analysts said.

 

According to the median of estimates from eight broking firms polled by Informist, the December crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen in the range of INR 5,075-INR 5,600 per barrel this month. The December contract of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $56.8 and $62.51 per barrel.

 

"Beginning of December, there will be short-covering," said Jigar Trivedi, an analyst at Reliance Securities. 

 

The US has proposed a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but the deal is facing hurdles as Russia has put forward firm preconditions. While Russian President Putin conveyed readiness to explore talks based on US President Trump's proposals – raising hopes that sanctions on Russian crude could eventually ease – most market participants are doubtful about any swift breakthrough, according to Ajay Kedia, founder and director of Kedia Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

 

Meanwhile, the US has threatened Venezuela of military action. The US appears to be ready for a war with Venezuela, a prospect that Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro has attributed to America's desire to control the country's vast oil reserves. This could support crude oil prices, Anindya Banerjee, analyst at Kotak Securities, said.

 

In addition, seasonal supply disruptions during the winter due to temporary freeze-offs and production cuts and the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pause production increments in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonality also raised supply concerns, according to traders.

 

Eight countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – reaffirmed that the 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts could be partially or fully reversed, depending on market conditions, and would be implemented gradually. They also reiterated their firm commitment to achieving full compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary adjustments, which will continue to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee.

 

However, some analysts expect prices to be range-bound. "We expect the prices remain range-bound in December as Christmas and New Year holidays will impact demand. Secondly, the Russia-Ukraine peace deal is on the cards. And OPEC plus has also given signal for maintaining status quo on the production side. So, looking to all the mix of fundamentals, prices may remain in the range," Manoj Kumar Jain, analyst at Prithvi Finmart, said.

 

Crude is expected to remain range-bound, reflecting a balance between ample supply and moderate demand, said Pankaj Singh, founder and principal researcher, SmartWealth.ai. "We see NYMEX WTI trading in the $57–$65 per barrel range, while MCX crude should remain around INR 5,300–INR 5,800," he said. "Steady non-OPEC output, patchy demand data, a firm dollar, and lingering geopolitical risk premium collectively anchor prices within this band unless an unforeseen supply disruption occurs." 

 

Prices are unlikely to crash due to geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, said Riya Singh, research analyst, currency and commodities at Emkay Global Financial Services. Further, heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia have led to tanker seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, which could escalate supply side risks. Iranian forces have periodically seized individual foreign-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The strait is a major route for oil transit to India and China, she said.

 

From a long-term perspective, crude oil prices are expected to be under pressure. The International Energy Agency has once again raised its forecast for growth in global oil supply in both 2025 and 2026, marking the fourth consecutive month of upward revision. The Paris-based inter-governmental organisation expects global oil supply to rise by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to an annual average of 106.3 million barrels per day, the agency said in its oil market report for November.

 

Following are the details of the estimates of brokerages on crude oil prices for December:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support ($)	NYMEX WTI resistance ($)
Kedia Advisory	5,000	5,620	57.10	62.40
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	5,000	5,500	57.30	62.50
Nirmal Bang	5,200	5,580	58.80	65
Prithvi Finmart	5,050	5,600	54	64
Reliance Securities	5,100	5,700	58.50	62
Ventura Securities	5,300	5,750	55	64
Kotak Securities	5,100	5,600	56	62
SMC Global Securities	4,980	5,600	56.50	62.52
Median	5,075	5,600	56.80	62.51

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.12

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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