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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

MUMBAI – India is heading towards its biggest wheat surplus ever, making it inescapable for the government to not allow export of the grain next year, said Ajay Goyal, the chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society. The government's stock is expected to be around 50 million tonnes by Jun. 1 and the policy for exports needs to be changed as the market is dealing with concern about glut, he said. 

The rabi sowing for wheat had started 10–15 days earlier, setting the stage for acreage to rise 2-4% on year. India is on track for a potential record of more than 117 million tonne wheat crop in 2025-26 season. Weather permitting, it would surpass the previous high, Goyal told Informist Media.

"This surplus-driven policy pressure is the most consequential development because it directly shapes procurement, pricing, private trade behaviour, and the overall supply–demand balance." Goyal said policy direction must change as "the market doesn't need the government wheat this year." 

Goyal expects the next year to start with record stocks. According to him, the government is likely to hold 30 million tonnes from new procurement and 20 million tonnes of carryover stocks as on Jun. 1. Industry has been waiting for the Directorate General of Foreign Trade's notification on the policy regarding wheat product exports. With the looming glut, Goyal warned it would be "unfortunate if it doesn't come now," as in the next 3–4 months the market could see intense supply. 

Prices are expected to remain subdued as they are stuck at the same level as at the beginning of the season in July due to oversupply and lacklustre buying, he said. Even Open Market Sale Scheme operations have seen low participation, with releases happening just once a fortnight and less than one-third of the wheat being lifted.

As reported by Informist, in the auction held on Nov. 26, Food Corp. of India could sell only 80,000 tonnes of wheat out of 200,000 tonnes it had offered.

As of Tuesday, price of wheat in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, one of the largest wheat producing states, was steady around INR 2,745 per 100 kilograms while that in Kota, Rajasthan was unchanged at INR 2,500 per 100 kg.  End

Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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