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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

MUMBAI – Silver prices are expected to rise to INR 200,000 per kg in 2025, after rising above INR 173,965 per kg in previous sessions, due to weak US data and rising expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, Kedia Advisory said in a report. Silver prices also rose due to its addition to the US critical mineral list, worries around tariffs, low inventories in Shanghai and London, and large inflows into the iShares Silver Trust ETF, Kedia Advisory said in the report. 

"The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) alone added 324 tonnes this week, marking its heaviest inflow since July and pushing SLV's holdings to 47.5% of all silver stored in London's vault network," Kedia Advisory said. Traders on COMEX, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Multi Commodity Exchange of India have aggressively increased exposure amid tightening global inventories and rising tariff risks. 

In London, vault stocks remain tight even after an inflow of 54 million ounces, while Shanghai inventories have fallen to their lowest levels since 2015, recovering only slightly from decade lows. On COMEX, nearly 75 million ounces have left vaults since October, but traders hesitate to ship the metal due to tariff-risk premiums. Together, these supply pressures have pushed domestic premiums higher and tightened spot–futures spreads globally.

Silver has recorded one of its most remarkable annual runs in recent market history, climbing to twice its value in 2025. On MCX, silver jumped nearly 20% in only 10 days to reach around INR 184,000 per kg, while international spot prices rose about 21% during this period.

"The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) has crossed above the zero line with a strong positive crossover – one of the clearest confirmations of trend acceleration in metals. This signals that upside momentum is not just intact but strengthening," Kedia Advisory said. The relative strength index is high at 79.14, showing overbought conditions, which may trigger brief profit-taking. However, in strong breakout phases, the relative strength index tends to remain elevated for extended periods without reversing the trend, it said.

"The Choppiness Index suggests heightened volatility, which is typical during major pattern breakouts and often precedes sustained directional moves," it said. As long as silver stays above INR 173,965 per kg, the overall outlook remains bullish, and the metal could still be headed towards the INR 200,000 per kg level within the next month if supportive macro factors continue. 

At 1327 IST, the most-active March silver contract on the MCX was down 1.6% at INR 179,150 per kg. The most-active March contract on the COMEX was down 2.1% at $57.93 per ounce.  End

US$1 = INR 89.84

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Reshma Ravi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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