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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended broadly steady against the dollar Thursday as banks' dollar buying for importers was offset by an overall weakness in the dollar index, dealers said. Volumes in the currency market also remained muted as traders refrained from placing fresh bets due to the high dollar/rupee level, dealers said. "A pretty dull day actually," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There was no need for the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) to come in; there was not enough buying (of dollars) to push the rupee downwards."

 

After moving in a range of just 12 paise during the day, the rupee ended at 89.3050 a dollar, down a bit from 89.2700 Wednesday. Other Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.4% against the greenback, with the South Korean won gaining the most.

 

The rupee opened higher against the greenback owning to a fall in the dollar index. The dollar index continued its fall even after data showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest in seven months. This should have spurred concern about whether the US Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark policy rate at its December meeting, but the markets are now pricing in a Fed rate cut even more firmly than when the US non-farm payroll data was released last week.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.70, higher than 99.56 Wednesday but lower than 99.79 Tuesday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 84.7% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. The dollar index rose slightly in European trade compared to its previous close but remained weak in the broader picture.

 

Shortly after opening, these gains were erased due to demand for dollars from importers, dealers said. The trading volume in the currency market remained thin as the current level of the rupee was considered high by traders, dealers said. The rupee hovered at 89.24-89.26 a dollar throughout the day. The Indian currency has been trading at these levels for the past four days, since it slumped to its lifetime low of 89.4950 a dollar Friday. Dealers said the RBI has been intervening around these levels since Monday but was absent from the market Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.3050	89.2050	89.2000	89.3200	89.2700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	196.56	196.56	196.82	196.06	197.50

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as traders refrained from placing fresh bets amid lack of significant cues, dealers said. Traders await the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week, where the apex bank is widely expected to cut the repo rate.

 

US Treasury yields fell slightly Wednesday as the market continues to factor in a rate cut by the Fed in December. The weekly unemployment benefit claims data released Wednesday showed an improvement in the US labour market, but traders continued to hope for a Fed rate cut. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.00% Wednesday from 4.01% Tuesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.20%, steady against the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.06 paise, against Wednesday's close of 196.56 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and Asian currencies, dealers said. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market to protect the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 90-per-dollar mark.

 

Market participants will continue to watch developments related to the India-US trade deal talks. "Possible positive FII (foreign institutional investor) inflows may continue, with secondary markets staying strong over the last couple of days and hovering near all-time-high levels, offering some cushion to the rupee," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president, commodity and currency research, LKP Securities, said in a note. "The rupee is expected to remain in a range of 88.75–89.55."

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep the downward pressure on the local currency intact. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.00 to 89.40 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.00 per dollar and support at 89.30.

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India Rupee - World FX: New Zealand dollar up as no more rate cuts expected

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3227	1.3268	1.3225	1.3240
EUR/USD	1.1590	1.1614	1.1586	1.1596
NZD/USD	0.5718	0.5732	0.5693	0.5696
AUD/USD	0.6524	0.6540	0.6518	0.6517
USD/JPY	156.2040	156.4920	155.7270	156.4700
USD/CAD	1.4038	1.4048	1.4029	1.4040
EUR/JPY	181.0500	181.4649	180.7640	181.4200
CHF/USD	1.2421	1.2460	1.2418	1.2431
EUR/CHF	0.9331	0.9335	0.9315	0.9325

 

MUMBAI – The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% against the greenback after comments by Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby dampened hopes of another rate cut by the bank. Hawkesby Thursday said that early indicators suggest the economy had been expanding during the second half of this year and demand had stabilised. 

 

The central bank of New Zealand cut its benchmark official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% Wednesday, its lowest level since mid-2022, but policymakers signalled a potential end to the policy easing cycle as the economy showed early signs of picking up. New Zealand's central bank is now forecasting the cash rate will be at 2.20% in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.65% in the fourth quarter of 2027. The Australian dollar also rose 0.2% against the dollar.

 

The Japanese yen rose 0.2% against the greenback after Bank of Japan member Asahi Noguchi said the central bank could resume interest rate hikes as risks from US tariffs subside, but must do so at a "measured, step-by-step" pace. Noguchi said that keeping real interest rates too low for too long would not be good for the economy – it could weaken the yen and trigger inflation. 

 

The dollar index continued its fall even after data showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest in seven months. This should have spurred concerns about whether the US Federal Reserve would cut key benchmark policy rates at its December meeting but markets are now pricing in a Fed rate cut even more firmly than when the US non-farm payroll data was released last week.

 

At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.43, lower than 99.56 Wednesday and 99.79 Tuesday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 84.7% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week.

 

The euro and the pound sterling traded steady against the greenback, while the Swiss franc fell 0.15%.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Premium steady amid lack of fresh cues; MPC meet outcome eyed

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2500	89.2050	89.3200	89.2000	89.2700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	196.06	196.56	196.82	196.06	197.50

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as traders refrained from placing fresh bets amid lack of significant cues, dealers said. "Exporters shunning these levels," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Importers covering near and medium term." Traders await the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee meeting outcome, where the apex bank is widely expected to cut its key policy rate.

 

US Treasury yields fell slightly Wednesday as market continues to factor in the most likely rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. However, the weekly unemployment benefit claims data released Wednesday showed an improvement in the labour market, but traders still hoped for a rate cut by Fed. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.00% Wednesday from 4.01% Thursday.  

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1320 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.62, broadly steady against 99.56 Wednesday but lower than 99.79 Tuesday.

 

Market participants also await RBI's monetary policy committee meeting outcome due on Dec. 5. Expectation of a rate cut by the central bank's rate-setting panel next month have increased after Governor Sanjay Malhotra recently said none of the economic data released after the last policy review had reduced the scope for further rate cuts in India.

 

At 1320 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.20%, steady against the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.06 paise, against Wednesday's close of 197.50 paise.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Steady as fall in dlr index offsets importers' buys; volume dull

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2600	89.2050	89.2000	89.3200	89.2700

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded broadly steady against the dollar Thursday as dollar buying by banks for importers was offset by a fall in the dollar index, dealers said. The trading volume in the currency market also remained thin, as the current levels of the rupee were considered inflated by traders, dealers said.

 

"There is not much trading in the market since morning," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The rupee is trapped around the same level for the past three days, four is very low volatality in the market to place any bets."

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index slumped further as markets continue to price in a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1315 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.62, broadly steady against 99.56 Wednesday but lower than 99.79 Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.80 and 89.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.30 a dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 27

 

MUMBAI – At 1058 IST, the rupee was at 89.2400 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.2050 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.2700 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	89.45	89.25	89.10	89.05
Private-sector bank	89.40	89.30	89.15	89.10
Brokerage firm	89.60	89.31	89.01	88.80

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Steady as importers buy dollars; fall in dollar index supports

 

	AT 0951 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.2475	89.2050	89.2000	89.2525	89.2700

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded steady against the dollar Thursday as an uptick in the rupee, tracking a fall in the dollar index, was countered by dollar demand from importers, dealers said. Some dealers also speculated that some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, limiting the fall in the domestic currency.

 

"There was slight appreciation at the opening," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But soon, it was erased. Now the rupee will continue to trade around these levels throughout the day." The Indian unit has been hovering around 89.20-89.25 a dollar from Monday. The rupee hit a lifetime low of 89.4950 a dollar Friday. 

Meanwhile, the dollar index slumped further as markets continue to price in a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 0925 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.49, lower than 99.56 Wednesday and 99.79 Tuesday. 

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a rise in its other Asian peers, tracking the slump in the dollar index. The Philippine peso was the best performer with a rise of 0.2%. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.80 and 89.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.30 a dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as dollar index falls on Fed rate cut hopes

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar, tracking a fall in the dollar index. Data late Wednesday showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest in seven months. This hints at a strong labour market and should have reduced expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December. Instead, the dollar index continued to fall as markets are now pricing in a Fed rate cut even more firmly than when the US non-farm payroll data was released last week.

 

At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.43, lower than 99.56 Wednesday and 99.79 Tuesday. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.1% against the greenback after the Bank of Korea kept its interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, in line with market expectations. The sharp fall of the won for the past few months and soaring house prices in the counry prompted the Bank of Korea to keep its policy rate unchanged.

 

Tracking the fall of the dollar index, the Philippine peso and the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% against the greenback and the Indonesian rupiah rose 0.1%. The Thai baht traded steady against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the greenback.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 27

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	89.30	89.15
Private-sector bank	89.28	89.08
Brokerage firm	89.35	89.10
Brokerage firm	89.31	89.01

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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