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Informist, Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – After remaining stagnant for a few months, jeera futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange are gaining momentum due to lower arrivals and supply concern on delayed sowing. Prices are likely to increase further in December as the area under cultivation for jeera is down this year, market participants said.

 

Prices of the spice have risen over 9% on month so far in November due to adverse weather and delayed sowing across major growing regions such as Rajasthan and Gujarat. "Sowing of jeera, a rabi season crop, usually starts mid-October, and harvested in February to March. But due to higher moisture content in the soil during that time (mid-October) due to heavy showers, it has started now," said Ajay Kedia, founder and director of Kedia Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.

 

Sowing of jeera is seen around 1 million hectares in 2025-26, down from 1.17 million hectares last year, according to analysts. "One of the major reasons for lower sowing this time, apart from weather-related concerns, is farmers shifting to other crops. Returns from jeera have been less than last year, so farmers shifted to lucrative crops such as chana and mustard," said Hariprakash Sharma, commodity analyst at Igrain India.

 

Owing to the on-going wedding season demand amid falling area under cultivation, prices are likely to increase further by INR 150 per 100 kg in the next two months, said Arihant Jain, a trader from Unjha in Gujarat. Unjha is the major jeera trading centre in Gujarat.

 

"There are around 4.6 million wedding in India between November and January, so there is going to be firm bulk demand for jeera," Kedia said.

 

Moreover, the overall market sentiment is positive as the goods and services tax cut is going to have some incremental impact on demand for jeera, said traders and market participants. The cut in goods and services tax rates on packed spice mixes to 5% from 18% is expected to reduce prices by about 6-11%, which is likely to boost demand for all spices. This will also boost bulk demand for jeera and other spices from the fast-moving consumer goods companies, Kedia said.

 

Futures contracts of jeera are likely to stay elevated due to duty relaxations in the US that will raise demand for Indian jeera, according to SMC Global Securities. Gujarat is witnessing one of its slowest sowing seasons in recent years as uneven rainfall has left fields unprepared. Low arrivals at the Unjha market are keeping price of good-quality jeera firm, according to Kedia Advisory.

 

For 2025, India's jeera production is estimated at 9.0–9.2 million bags, lower than last year's 11.0 million bags, with Gujarat expected to produce 4.2–4.5 million bags and Rajasthan 4.8–5.0 million bags, according to Kedia Advisory.

 

During October, prices of the most active December jeera futures were around INR 19,800 per 100 kg and currently they have risen to INR 21,400 per 100 kg. Prices are likely to increase to INR 22,500 by December, analysts said.

 

In the key spot markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan, jeera prices are currently in the range of INR 20,000 per 100 kg and are likely to increase to INR 21,000 per 100 kg by December, Sharma said. Similarly, futures prices which are currently around INR 21,000 per 100 kg are expected to exceed INR 22,000 per 100 kg by December, he said. "Prices will increase by INR 10 per kg by Dec. 15-20 as the sowing figures will be clearer during that time," Sharma said.

 

Demand for jeera was sluggish in October as there were ample stocks with farmers which they were offloading due to bearish market sentiment prevailing then.  

 

The situation changed subsequently as market assessment of production and arrivals changed. Jeera exports improved slightly in September, Sharma added. Exports during September were at 17,132.84 tonnes, compared with 16,973.35 tonnes last year, Sharma said, citing commerce ministry data.

 

However, prices are unlikely to breach INR 22,700 market as factors such as comfortable carryover stocks and low retail demand after the wedding season will limit the gains, traders said. Low export demand will affect prices, they said. Logistical constraints in India and the West Asia, along with geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, have restricted global supply, yet Indian exports remain muted China, according to analysts.

 

China has expanded its role in the market, sometimes stepping in as a strong supplier or even as re-exporter when Indian prices are high. Buyers are increasingly diversifying their sourcing options to manage risk and secure better prices, said stakeholders.

 

However, currently China is out of the market for Indian jeera. In the 2024-25 season, China's jeera output rose significantly, nearly doubling on year to 55,000–60,000 tonnes. This has reduced the need for imports from India. 

 

Nevertheless, local demand-supply equation can be expected to push up jeera prices in the near future, said market observers.  End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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